Scooter & Hum: Day 1,396, Quasi-Quarantine: Dolphins-Bills Game 17 Review

In the regular-season finale, Miami hosted the hated Beefalo Bills with a division title on the line. Down two of its top three offensive weapons and three of its top five defensive players, the Dolphins hung around before more injuries popped up on defense and the offense went into a shell. Cue the weekly special-teams gaffe and the 'Fins ended up on the wrong end yet again.

The home team ran 29 fewer plays and were destroyed in the time-of-possession battle (38:07-21:53), devastating for a thin defense. The Dolphins ended up 1-4 on the season against teams with a winning record, with a point differential of -91. Further, in the last three -- and biggest -- games of the year, Miami averaged just over 18 points and were largely lost against high-caliber defenses.

So what to make of Mike McDaniel? Goofy offensive genius with an uncanny ability of relating to players? Or glorified coordinator with a lack of game management capability whose hands-off style can't get the 'Fins over the top? Both answers -- or a combination of them -- are perfectly valid at this point.

On to the Groundhog-Day-again recap ...

Offense

Limited to just three first downs (one by penalty) and 17 total plays in the second half, the 'Fins melted down offensively, tallying just 275 total yards and 16 first downs and converting just four of 10 third downs. Miami scored a touchdown on its lone red-zone visit and averaged 5.4 yards per carry, but ran it just 20 times -- they rushed just three times for five yards in the entire second half -- and seemed to fall in love with a misdirection toss sweep way too much.
Tua Tagovailoa did nothing to combat his ever-growing reputation for poor performances in big games, connecting on 17 of 27 passes for 173 yards and a touchdown. He wasn't sacked and ran once for seven yards, but threw two interceptions and was more inaccurate than normal.
Playing without touchdown leader Raheem Mostert once again, the 'Fins turned exclusively to DeVon Achane and Jeff Wilson. In 33 snaps, Achane carried 10 times for 56 yards -- including a 25-yard touchdown burst -- with a five-yard catch, but he took a six-yard sack on a designed pass that he could have simply thrown out of bounds. Wilson carried nine times for 45 yards in 25 snaps, but Alec Ingold contributed only an illegal blindside block in his 17 snaps.
At wideout, the corps missed Jaylen Waddle. Tyreek Hill was targeted 13 times, but reeled in just seven for 82 yards and a touchdown in his 40 snaps. His game was marred by three or four drops, including a couple at pivotal, game-turning moments. Cedrick Wilson led all wideouts with 50 snaps, but caught a single pass for 24 yards among his three targets. Braxton Berrios had two catches for just nine yards in 24 snaps, while River Cracraft caught his only target for 18 yards in nine snaps. Chase Claypool (one catch for three yards on two targets in four snaps) and Robbie Chosen (two snaps, no targets) saw scant action in reserve, though Claypool was the target on the Tua interception that ended the contest. It's clear Miami has become entirely too dependent on Hill, and the braintrust must explore ways to diversify the offense in instances where Hill is slowed or taken away by the defense.
Durham Smythe caught all three targets for 30 yards in his 39 snaps, while Julian Hill delivered a two-yard catch in two targets at tight end.
The offensive line stayed intact for this one and held Buffalo without a sack while also getting the ground game going. Right guard Robert Hunt and right tackle Austin Jackson were each called for being ineligible downfield, while left tackle Terron Armstead was whistled for both holding and a false start. The front played well enough to win in this one.

Defense

The Dolphins limited Buffalo to two touchdowns in five trips, stopped two of three fourth-down attempts, forced three turnovers, and collected three sacks despite a litany of injuries. The Bills racked up 473 total yards and converted nine of 15 third-down tries, but it was an inspiring performance considering the state of Miami's defensive depth chart. The unit deserved a better outcome in this one.
As usual, the "D" was led up front, with Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler delivering sterling efforts. Wilkins had five solo stops, six pressures, and three quarterback hits in 71 plays, highlighted by a triple play -- sack, strip, recovery -- at a crucial moment, earning an 88.7 grade from Pro Football Focus. Sieler added seven tackles, half a sack, and two quarterback hits in 68 snaps.
At tackle, Raekwon Davis (solo stop in 36 snaps) and DeShawn Hand (two assisted tackles in 14 snaps) were relatively quiet.
With the injury devastation at outside linebacker, long-time vet Melvin Ingram led the way with 58 snaps a matter of days after being signed. He responded with five tackles, 1.5 sacks, one stop for loss, and two quarterback hits. Emmanuel Ogbah contributed four tackles and a stop for a loss in 46 snaps, while Andrew Van Ginkel posted one solo tackle and a quarterback hit in his 29 snaps before being lost for the season. Cameron Goode was active with two tackles and a quarterback hit before also suffering an injury that will sideline him the rest of the way.
David Long paced the inside linebackers with 10 tackles and eight solo stops in 69 snaps. Jerome Baker made his long-awaited return and delivered nine tackles and four solo stops in 41 snaps, but broke a bone in his wrist, making his return a short one. Duke Riley notched three solo stops in 37 snaps.
At cornerback, Eli Apple led in snaps with 78, recording eight tackles, five solos, a pass breakup, and an end-zone interception. Jalen Ramsey totaled four tackles and a holding call in 76 snaps, and he has come up small when his team has needed him most. Kader Kohou had a solo tackle and a pass breakup in 51 snaps, but his play has tailed off dramatically as the season has gone on. Nik Needham was beaten for a touchdown in his six snaps, but fortunately the pass was dropped. Cam Smith got a pair of snaps, but the rookie seems no closer to escaping coordinator Vic Fangio's doghouse. Playing without Xavien Howard, the corners needed a little more help from a decimated pass rush.
DeShon Elliott notched 10 tackles, six solo stops, a pass breakup, and an end-zone pick in 72 snaps. Brandon Jones piled up eight tackles, six solos, and two stops for losses, looking more like the 2022 version of himself in his 62 snaps. Jevon Holland returned for 27 snaps, but still looked off, making only an assisted tackle. Elijah Campbell did not record a statistic in three scrimmage snaps.

Special teams

Jason Sanders had a quiet evening, nailing two extra points.
Jake Bailey punted five times for a 47.8-yard average, putting one inside the 20-yard line.
The Dolphins did not have any kickoff or punt returns, but managed to give up a game-turning 96-yard touchdown on the only returned punt of the game.
Smythe's workload in the third phase has diminished as his importance in the passing game has risen. In his stead, Ingold and Julian Hill led offensive players with nine snaps each on special teams, while Campbell (16), Channing Tindall (14), and Riley (13) paced defenders in the third phase.

Momentum plays

Miami got the ball first and got a 16-yard run from Achane before Tua threw a bad interception into double coverage three plays later.
Buffalo responded with a 12-play, 79-yard drive, converting a pair of third-and-shorts along the way. However, on 3rd & goal, Holland provided late pressure that led to an Apple interception. Unfortunately, the corner tried to return it after lying on his stomach in the end zone and stumbled, forcing the 'Fins to start on their own 3-yard line.
Back-to-back passes of 18 and 19 yards to Cracraft and Hill, respectively, gave the Dolphins some breathing room. Achane followed with an 11-yard run, but two straight incompletions led to a punt.
The Bills got going when Jones and Apple ran into each other while trying to stop a flanker screen, allowing the receiver to race 46 yards down the sideline and flip field position. Four plays later, Josh Allen bought time on 4th & 2, but Sieler delivered a great hit on the rollout and a quasi-Hail Mary was easily intercepted by Elliott, giving Miami end-zone picks on back-to-back drives.
The 'Fins converted a 3rd & 6 with a seven-yarder to Berrios, but a trend of lost first-down yardage contributed to a 3rd & 14. Hill went high to reel in a 23-yarder to convert, then Wilson added a 13-yard run behind a strong Ingold block. A Tua scramble earned another first down, then Achane used a Smythe block and two stellar cuts to go nearly untouched for a 25-yard touchdown run and a 7-0 Miami lead.
The visitors promptly put together their third straight long drive, highlighted by a 36-yard strike to Stefon Diggs despite strong coverage from Apple. Two plays later, Allen's pass was tipped by Van Ginkel, but the ball improbably floated to the back of the end zone, where former Dolphin Trent Sherfield gathered it in with a toe tap to tie the score at seven. The staggeringly unlikely play led more than one Miami fan to wonder how the stars have aligned against the team so quickly.
The 'Fins went back to the run with Achane and Wilson, moving deep into Buffalo territory when Tua lofted a perfect 24-yarder to Cedrick Wilson just after the two-minute warning. Three plays later, a quick dart to Hill converted a 3rd & 1 into an easy three-yard touchdown and a 14-7 Miami advantage.
Buffalo continued ripping off first downs, using short passes and Allen scrambles to move into the red zone. With 11 seconds and no timeouts remaining, the Bills got greedy, with Allen hitting running back Ty Johnson on an arrow route. Baker delivered a massive hit at the goal line to keep Johnson out of the end zone, running out the clock and sending the teams into the halftime locker rooms.
The Bills began the third quarter with two quick first downs, including an edge run that featured an uncalled hold and a Van Ginkel injury. Two plays later, Baker hurt his wrist, but continued playing and contributed to a third-down sack by Ingram to force a Buffalo punt.
A missed block by Hunt turned a potential big gainer from Achane into a five-yard pickup, and Berrios couldn't break a tackle on 3rd & 3, forcing a three-and-out.
With all day to operate, Allen got his offense going again, mixing short passes and quarterback runs. A tackle for loss by Jones set up a 3rd & 13 from Miami's 21-yard line, and Wilkins delivered the best play of his career when he got a sack, forced fumble, and fumble recovery all in the same motion to give the 'Fins the ball back at the start of the fourth quarter.
An immediate false start by Armstead put Miami behind the chains again, and the matters got worse when a 14-yard catch by Hill was overturned on replay. A personal foul on Ingold followed, and a Smythe catch fell well short on 3rd & 23. Bailey uncorked a 58-yard punt that was fielded at Buffalo's four-yard line, but a Tindall missed tackle and a Goode injury in the middle of the play led to a relatively easy 96-yard return score to even the score and demoralize an entire fanbase.
Back-to-back runs covered just a yard, and a third-down pass to Cedrick Wilson was behind him, leading to a shockingly fast three-and-out.
With all the momentum on their side, the Bills roared down the field, converting a 3rd & 2 with an Allen run and then finding Ingram in coverage on a tight end for a 26-yard gain. From there, Buffalo used two fairly blatant pick plays to cover 28 yards and then the final five yards for a touchdown and a 21-14 lead.
Two devastating drops by Hill marked the next three-and-out by Miami. With no margin for error, the 'Fins could not afford either one.
The Bills embarked on another lengthy drive, with Allen converting a 4th & inches and then a 3rd & 13 on the strength of a scramble that saw him break tackles by Baker (understandable) and Kohou (unforgiveable). With Miami using its timeouts, Buffalo got nine yards on a 3rd & 10 play, but Long and Ogbah stood up Allen on 4th & 1, energizing the stadium and giving the 'Fins life with 1:53 remaining.
Two quick passes to Hill and Smythe, respectively, covered 13 yards, but another Hill drop -- he may have scored if he reeled it in -- was offset by a pass interference on the play. On the next play, Tua went deep for Hill again, but he couldn't make a play in the air and the ball fell incomplete. An obviously hobbled Hill limped to the sideline, contributing to Claypool being the target on the next play, which Tua threw into double coverage for an easy game-ending interception.
A pair of kneeldowns allowed the visitors to secure the division title and escape South Beach with yet another victory.