Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Day 1,306, Quasi-Quarantine: Dolphins-Bills Game 4 Review

 

With the national media shouting accolades for the Miami offense from the rooftops and everyone talking about the 'Fins as a Super Bowl favorite, reality arrived in the form of a punch directly to the face from the hated Beefalo Bills. In a truly humbling beatdown that extended the Dolphins' losing streak to eight in a row in Buffalo and 10 of 11 to the Bills overall, Miami was sloppy and soft. The performance was rife with penalties (eight), missed tackles and assignments, and questionable, embarrassing effort on a lot of occasions. 

On to the this-feels-more-familiar recap ...


Offense
  • The 'Fins managed 393 yards and 6.8 yards per play, but somehow that is disappointing for this offense. Miami was borderline dominant on the ground, averaging 7.5 yards per carry, but time and score only allowed for 19 rushing attempts. The visitors also scored touchdowns on three of four red-zone visits but were largely shut down after a fast start, limited to three of 10 on third-down attempts and failing to convert on any of their three fourth-down tries. An illegal formation and delay of game on the unit also didn't help, and when it was clear that the defense was not going to be of use on the day, this is how the offense responded: The Dolphins' last four drives before halftime consisted of twelve plays, three three-and-outs, and a fumble.
  • Tua Tagovailoa started hot and finished 25 of 35 for 282 yards and a score. However, he was sacked four times, hit nine times, fumbled once, and threw an interception. In his 65 snaps, he also ran twice for seven yards and recovered two fumbles, but when he was forced to put the team on his back, he struggled without much help.
  • Rookie sensation De'Von Achane cemented his arrival with another stellar outing in the backfield. In 39 snaps, he carried eight times for 101 yards -- including a 55-yarder -- and two touchdowns, while adding three grabs on five targets for 19 more yards. Raheem Mostert had a forgettable day after a memorable start to the campaign: In 28 snaps, he carried seven times for nine yards and caught three of five targets for 36 yards, but fumbled twice, losing one. Alec Ingold had a 23-yard catch among his 23 snaps, while Salvon Ahmed did not have a touch in his four snaps. Miami had some success on perimeter runs, but found little room between the tackles and had to abandon the run early.
  • At receiver, Tyreek Hill (three catches, five targets, 58 yards in 47 snaps) and Jaylen Waddle (four grabs in five targets for 46 yards in 49 snaps) were limited by Buffalo's defensive strategy. Braxton Berrios caught all six targets for 43 yards and a touchdown and even recovered a fumble in 32 snaps, but Miami got little production from Cedrick Wilson (one catch on two targets for 16 yards in 23 snaps) and Robbie Chosen (did not catch his lone target in 18 snaps). The Bills were focused on taking away chunk passing plays, and the strategy worked this time around.
  • Durham Smythe had an early outburst and ended up with four receptions on four targets for 41 yards in his 55 snaps, but Julian Hill was only able to contribute a false start in his 10 snaps. Smythe is carrying a heavy load at tight end, and it's difficult to ascertain what Hill adds at this point. Miami may need to rethink its options at tight end moving forward.
  • With Buffalo able to take away most of Tua's first looks, the Dolphins' offensive line was exposed in a big way. Playing without Connor Williams at center and with left tackle Terron Armstead limited to just 22 snaps, Miami was always going to have an uphill battle against a respected Bills front. When the 'Fins became predictable and had to throw on nearly every down, those issues were exacerbated. Liam Eichenberg may not be long for the roster after he allowed five pressures and two sacks in 47 pass-block snaps, contributing to his abysmal pass-pro grade of 10.6 for the season. In the fourth quarter alone, he committed a penalty to negate a touchdown and allowed a sack. Kendall Lamm subbed in for 43 snaps after Armstead departed and Robert Hunt was flagged for holding, and it certainly wasn't only Eichenberg who struggled. The 'Fins may need to explore ways to more selectively use Armstead, perhaps in a way similar to how NBA players pursue load management.

Defense
  • Coordinator Vic Fangio's crew simply had no answers in what was a demoralizing performance. Buffalo signal-caller Josh Allen hit 21 of 25 passes for 320 yards and four scores, ran for another touchdown, and finished with a perfect 158.3 passer rating. Receiver Stephone Diggs torched the secondary and Kader Kohou to the tune of 120 yards and three scores, even breaking tackles despite not being a very good after-the-catch player. Overall, Miami gave up 8.1 yards per play and allowed touchdowns on four of Buffalo's first five drives. The Bills scored touchdowns on five of six red-zone trips, converted five of 10 third downs, and averaged 11.5 yards per pass -- all without committing a turnover.
  • The defensive front was largely overpowered in this one, with Zach Sieler recording four tackles and a stop for loss in 43 snaps and Christian Wilkins posting two tackles and a pass breakup in 42 snaps. Emmanuel Ogbah had an assisted tackle in 17 snaps and Chase Winovich assisted on a pair of tackles in his three snaps. Overall, this group generated no pressure on their own and struggled with gap control in the run game.
  • At tackle, Raekwon Davis continued his quiet season, making a solo stop in his 23 snaps. De'Shawn Hand was active, notching four tackles in just 16 snaps. Brandon Pili did not record a statistic in his five snaps.
  • In 44 snaps at linebacker in the absence of Jaelen Phillips, Andrew Van Ginkel notched five tackles, two sacks, three stops for losses, and two quarterback hits. Bradley Chubb got fairly consistent pressure when he wasn't being asked to go out in coverage, finishing the day with two tackles, a quarterback hit, and what should have been a half-sack in 48 snaps. It's becoming clear that this "D" needs Van Ginkel's energy on the field as often as possible.
  • At inside linebacker, David Long posted 10 tackles, seven solos, and two stops for losses in 54 snaps, while Jerome Baker added five solo tackles in 44 snaps. Duke Riley (one solo in 18 snaps) and Cameron Goode (four snaps) saw limited action in reserve.
  • In the defensive backfield, Kohou had his worst day as a professional, getting routinely torched by Diggs on his way to a 29.1 PFF grade that included three penalties and two solo stops in 58 snaps. Xavien Howard got the same number of snaps, finishing with three tackles and a pass breakup. Justin Bethel had four tackles and a pass breakup in 39 snaps, while Kelvin Joseph picked up a solo stop in his six snaps. Kohou is capable of holding his own as a boundary corner, but this may be further proof that his best position is in the slot as a nickle. Whether Miami trusts Eli Apple enough to make that move possible remains a large question.
  • At safety, Brandon Jones also a rough 58 snaps, making a pair of solo stops but missing a number of key tackles and generally looking less than 100 percent. Jevon Holland registered six tackles in his 55 snaps, but did not play to his usual standards. Elijah Campbell was credited with a solo tackle in his three reserve snaps. The entire secondary has to be counting down the days until Jalen Ramsey's potential return.

Special teams
  • A week after making 10 extra points to set a league record, Jason Sanders was quiet, connecting on a pair of extra points without a field goal attempt.
  • Jake Bailey had three punts for a 46.0-yard average in what was a busier day than usual for him.
  • Berrios ran back four kicks for a 22.8-yard average and a long of 27, while Wilson returned one punt for no gain.
  • Smythe's 14 special teams snaps led offensive players, while Riley and Joseph each played 26 snaps in the third phase, leading defensive players. For the second game in a row, Cambpell committed a holding penalty on special teams.

Momentum plays
  • The game started at a torrid pace, with Buffalo racing 75 yards in eight plays, aided by an unnecessary roughness call on Kohou, to take a 7-0 lead. Miami answered quickly, using seven plays to cover 77 yards on the strength of a 22-yard strike to Smythe, an 11-yarder to Waddle, and a 19-yard connection to Hill. Achane punched it in from three yards out to tie the score.
  • The Bills put together a 10-play drive that featured a pair of third-and-short conversions and used short passes before ageless Latavius Murray ripped off a 29-yard run that saw a big missed tackle by Jones. James Cook scored from a yard out to put Beefalo ahead, 14-7. The drive also featured a play that seemed to set the tone for the rest of the game when tight end Dawson Knox steamrolled Holland and then dove on top of him after a short catch and run.
  • The Dolphins wasted little time in finding the equalizer early in the second quarter, fashioning another seven-play possession. Tua found Hill for 20 before Mostert reeled in a 22-yard grab over two defenders along the sideline, a stunning play for a running back. On 3rd & 8, Tua connected with Berrios for 15, then Achane took an end-around for 10 yards and the tying touchdown.
  • With a shootout developing, Buffalo needed just five plays to reclaim the advantage. Recognizing that Kohou couldn't cover Diggs, Allen focused almost exclusively on the receiver, hitting him for 16 yards, drawing a 43-yard interference flag on Kohou (which was a stunningly bad call), and connecting with him against for an 11-yard scramble score to move ahead, 21-14.
  • At this point, the 'Fins simply couldn't afford any mistakes offensively, but unfortunately, the ensuing drive was an unmitigated disaster. An illegal formation call was followed by a deflected pass at the line, then Berrios was hammered on an ill-advised 2-yard pass. After a false start, Mostert fumbled on a 3rd & 18 run. Berrios recovered the ball somehow, but the ugly three-and-out seemed to portend the beginning of the end for the Dolphins.
  • Murray took advantage of more Miami missed tackles on a 22-yard catch and run to start the next drive, but Sieler made a tackle for loss and Wilkins swatted down a third-down pass, actually forcing a Bills punt.
  • The 'Fins responded with another three-and-out, and Buffalo pounced two plays later when Diggs beat Kohou severely once again, then spun away from both Kohou and Jones along the sideline for an embarrassing 55-yard score and a 28-14 lead.
  • Miami only ran three more plays again, highlighted by a dropped interception and a fumble from Mostert on an ill-advised 3rd & 1 run.
  • Following the punt, Van Ginkel drilled Allen for a sack, then the secondary narrowly avoided giving up a deep ball on 3rd & 14 to force a rare Bills punt.
  • Yet another three-and-out for Miami followed, with the 'Fins barely avoiding a blocked punt (Bailey should have fallen to draw a flag) as the teams headed into halftime.
  • With Miami's status within the game hanging by a thread, Tua escaped a sack and ran for a first on a key third-down play to jumpstart the second half. Achane had an end-around for 15 yards and Hill added his own for 14 more. A 17-yarder to Waddle moved the 'Fins into the red zone, and Tua converted a 3rd & 6 with a touch pass to Berrios in the back corner of the end zone. A fade to Hill on the two-point conversion was unsuccessful, making the score 31-20.
  • Another missed tackle by Holland ended up in a 48-yard catch and run by Cook on the next drive, but back-to-back pressures by Chubb -- including one that led to a Van Ginkel sack -- forced a short field goal to push the advantage to 34-20.
  • Two plays later, the game further slipped away when Tua fired high for Chosen -- who made a weak effort on the ball -- leading to an interception by Micah Hyde.
  • Buffalo converted a 3rd & 5 on a low, questionable catch, then Diggs once again easily raced past Kohou for a 13-yard score and a 41-20 lead.
  • The 'Fins opened the ensuing possession with a 19-yard strike to Hill, but Tua was sacked on 4th & 1 after Berrios got a poor spot on a third-down catch. Buffalo took over in Miami territory and needed two plays to punch another one across for a 48-20 advantage to start the fourth quarter.
  • Another end around by Achane went for 55 yards as the rookie weaved his way through traffic and nearly went the distance. Three plays later, Tua found Waddle for a touchdown, but a very late flag on Eichenberg (ineligible downfield) erased the score. On 4th & goal, a complete blocking breakdown led to another easy sack of Tua and a turnover on downs.
  • The 'Fins responded with a three-and-out after back-to-back Chubb pressures, but another very late flag (for holding on Campbell) damaged solid field position.
  • With Tua unnecessarily and inexplicably still in the game,  Miami used a 23-yard swing pass to Ingold to gain momentum. A series of disastrous plays -- sacks, penalties, short throws -- followed, punctuated by a 4th & 18 dumpoff to Wilson that came up two yards short of a first down.
  • Eight straight runs -- including three kneeldowns -- mercifully ended the contest.

Buffalo 48, Miami 20 (3-1)

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