Thursday, November 09, 2023

Day 1,333, Quasi-Quarantine: Dolphins-Chiefs Game 9 Review

 

Playing in Frankfurt, Germany, Miami collected more first downs (20-16), yards (292 to 267), yards per play (5.0 to 4.8), and time of possession (30:24 to 29:36) than Kansas City, and even tied in the turnover margin. The 'Fins also dominated field position, but shady officiating dogged the team, as playing another Kelce-affiliated team is not ideal since the NFL seems heavily invested in ensuring a Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl.

But in an excruciating loss, the Dolphins repeatedly shot themselves in the foot, digging themselves a three-touchdown hole that they were never quite able to get out of.

On to the what's-German-for-choking recap ...


Offense
  • Let's start by saying this offense should never be held under 300 yards. Ever. But the Chiefs did a really good of limiting big plays (just a single chunk play for Miami) and playing third-down defense, stopping the Dolphins on nine of 12 third-down attempts (and the lone fourth-down try). Miami started the game with six straight scoreless possessions and gave up on the running game too early (they averaged 5.6 yards per rush but ran it just 21 times). The 'Fins scored a touchdown on its lone red-zone visit -- but also handed a gift score to the Chiefs defense.
  • Tua Tagovailoa had a forgettable game, hitting 21 of 34 passes for just 193 yards and a touchdown on his way to a 66.7 grade from Pro Football Focus. He was sacked three times, rushed twice for seven yards, and was called for intentional grounding, but his last two plays were the worst. He misread a route, woefully and inexplicably underthrowing Cedrick Wilson, who was wide open for the tying touchdown, then failed to catch a shotgun snap on a fourth-down play where Kansas City went with cover-zero and Tua would have had multiple one-on-one matchups.
  • The only conclusion one can draw after the past couple of games is that both Raheem Mostert (35 snaps) and Jeff Wilson (11 snaps) are on pitch counts due to injury. Mostert needed more than 12 carries in this one, as he ran for 85 yards and a score, with a long of 25. He was targeted once and fumbled once. Wilson carried twice for six yards and caught three of four targets for 32 yards, earning a PFF grade of 55.7. Salvon Ahmed saw more action than necessary again, rushing three times for four yards and catching two of three targets for eight yards in his 19 snaps. Alec Ingold had a one-yard catch among his 27 snaps, getting dinged for blocking to the tune of a 45.0 grade from PFF.
  • At receiver, Tyreek Hill led the way as usual, snaring eight of 10 targets for 62 yards, but with a long of just 19 yards. He had a three-yard run, but had a brutal fumble that turned into a defensive touchdown that ended up being the difference in the game, in addition to dropping a couple of passes. Jaylen Waddle was limited by a knee injury, but made the most of 34 snaps, earning an 82.3 PFF grade on the strength of grabbing three of six targets for 42 yards and adding a 12-yard run. Wilson saw a season-high 41 snaps, contributing a 31-yard catch for a score. However, he did not catch any of his other four targets, was flagged for an illegal shift, and seemed to never quite be on the same page with Tua. No other receiver got a target, with Braxton Berrios earning a 50.6 PFF grade on 17 snaps and Chase Claypool (who recovered a fumble but also had a false start) drawing a 41.6 rating on 14 snaps. Overall, the persistent drops by Hill and the nagging Waddle injuries are getting worrisome.
  • Durham Smythe dominated action at tight end, catching all three of his targets for 17 yards in 53 snaps. Julian Hill only got seven snaps as a result of Miami having to abandon the running game due to the score.
  • The offensive line welcomed back stalwart left tackle Terron Armstead, who earned a 72.3 PFF grade in his 63 snaps, and center Connor Williams, who had a 67.3 PFF rating and a holding call in 63 snaps. Between those two, the 'Fins went with a rotation at left guard, to troubling results: Robert Jones got the bulk of the action (49 snaps), but had the worst PFF grade on offense at 40.4, while Liam Eichenberg fared well in the run game (67.4 run-blocking grade) but not so hot in pass protection (43.4 rating) in just 14 snaps. Right guard Robert Hunt missed this game, with Lester Cotton taking over and earning a 76.2 PFF grade to lead the offensive front. Right tackle Austin Jackson was called for holding, but was assigned a 76.4 rating by PFF in pass protection. This unit -- like most of the team -- is in dire need of the looming bye week to try to return to some semblance of health and continuity.

Defense
  • In an impressive defensive performance, the Dolphins stopped Kansas City on seven of 10 third-down attempts. Using shorter rotations (only 15 players saw action from scrimmage), the "D" limited the Super Bowl champs to just two touchdowns -- both on red-zone trips. In what has to be a good sign for the stretch run, the 'Fins got a good amount of pressure without blitzing and overcame some shaky first-half tackling to lock down a potent offense.
  • Zach Sieler led the way as usual at defensive end, recording seven tackles, four solos, two quarterback hits, and a recovered fumble in his 56 snaps for a 71.9 PFF grade. Christian Wilkins added three tackles, a stop for a loss, and a quarterback hit in 57 snaps, though his overall PFF rating was just 45.3. In a disturbing development, Emmanuel Ogbah was active but got zero snaps in the contest.
  • On the interior, Raekwon Davis made three tackles in 25 snaps for a 45.2 PFF grade. Da'Shawn Hand had an assisted tackle in his four snaps.
  • At outside linebacker, Bradley Chubb continued his tremendous play, tallying three tackles, a sack, a pass breakup, a quarterback hit, and a forced fumble in his 49 snaps, earning a 71.1 pass-rush grade from PFF along the way. In 51 snaps, Jaelan Phillips notched five tackles and a sack for a 61.0 PFF grade. Both Chubb (defensive holding) and Phillips (illegal contact) were whistled for highly suspect calls. Andrew Van Ginkel had three tackles in 27 snaps, grading out at an uncustomary 59.3 PFF grade.
  • Jerome Baker played 60 snaps at inside linebacker, but made just two tackles on his way to a 44.6 PFF grade. David Long was much more efficient, posting eight tackles and three solos in 46 snaps for a 67.8 rating from PFF, though he was not as effective as he needs to be on blitzes. The inside 'backers also had a couple of miscommunications in coverage.
  • In what was a sight for sore eyes for 'Fins fans, Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard both played all 60 snaps, with Howard earning a season-best 80.6 PFF grade on the strength of two solos and a pass breakup. Ramsey had four solo stops, a holding flag, and a 64.5 PFF grade, while Kader Kohou saw more limited snaps (39) and recorded four solos and a pass breakup as part of a 41.8 PFF rating that represented the worst grade on defense. Nik Needham had an assisted tackle in six snaps in reserve.
  • Starters Jevon Holland and DeShon Elliott played all 60 snaps at safety, with mixed results. Holland racked up eight tackles and two solos, but received a 54.7 pass-coverage grade from PFF, while Elliott had four tackles and three solos, but a 52.5 overall PFF rating. Holland feels long overdue for an impact play from the deep secondary for a team that has the second-fewest interceptions (four) in the league.

Special teams
  • Jason Sanders had just two extra points, but punter Jake Bailey was much busier, unfortunately. Bailey averaged 45.1 yards on seven punts, placing four inside the 20-yard line in a really strong performance.
  • Miami had no kickoff returns, though Berrios did contribute a seven-yard punt return in a quiet day in the return game.
  • Julian Hill led offensive players with 13 special teams snaps, with Ingold (11) and Berrios (10) also seeing significant time in the kicking game. Duke Riley, Justin Bethel, and Elijah Campbell each had 23 snaps to pace defensive players, with Cameron Goode getting 21. Riley and Goode each had two tackles and a solo (one of Goode's stops was a wicked hit on a kickoff return), while Campell contributed a solo stop.

Momentum plays
  • Kansas City got the opening kickoff and wasted no time in efficiently covering ground. The possession opened with a 21-yard pass, and three plays later the Chiefs converted a 3rd & 2 with a 10-yard pass. A 25-yard connection to the backup tight end put KC at Miami's 11-yard line, and after an initial score was overturned as a drop on replay, a slip screen found Dolphin defenders unable to get off blocks, capping a drive that featured some poor tackling with an easy touchdown.
  • Tua hit Waddle for 15 yards to begin the ensuing drive, but the 'Fins went backwards from there, with the Chiefs getting home with a third-down slot blitz on a play that featured no heat reads for Tua.
  • A slippery, hard-running Isiah Pacheco got 17 yards on a pair of carries, but the defense stiffened despite Phillips being held without a call. Van Ginkel made a pair of strong tackles to force the Kansas City punt.
  • Mostert's six-yard run was followed by a 12-yard end-around by Waddle that featured a good block by Mostert. Tua found Hill for 17 over the middle, but a deeper in-cut fell incomplete when Wilson took a big hit while not fully extending his arms for the catch. An illegal shift nullified a 3rd & 9 conversion on a good Waddle catch, and a 3rd & 15 shovel pass to Ahmed that should have put Miami into field-goal range fell apart when neither Armstead nor Jones blocked the lone Chiefs defender capable of erasing the play. Despite traveling 38 yards in six plays, the 'Fins had to punt.
  • Starting at its own 9-yard line, KC got an initial first down, but a missed offensive hold on a Wilkins rush and a missed grounding call on Mahomes set up a 3rd & 10 deep shot that fell incomplete under strong coverage by "X." In what was becoming a noticeable trend, Phillips was also held without a call on the third-down play.
  • The second quarter started with a Dolphins four-and-out, punctuated by a deep ball drop by Hill and an arrow route dropped by Jeff Wilson. Miami returned the favor on defense, with Wilkins dropping an end-around for a seven-yard loss, Sieler being held without a call on an incompletion against Howard coverage, and Kohou rallying to make a good underneath tackle on a third-down throw that saw more Sieler pressure.
  • The 'Fins started on their own 44-yard line, but went three and out after a deep ball to Waddle fell incomplete amidst a lot of contact. A sketchy grounding call on Tua followed, and a 10-yard underneath pass to Jeff Wilson got nowhere near a first down.
  • Another strong Bailey punt pinned KC at its 5-yard line, but the Chiefs used a diving third-down catch to move the chains. A questionable hold on Chubb continued the drive that saw some Mahomes scrambles and more physical running by Pacheco. Another uncalled hold on Sieler allowed a 23-yard pass over Ramsey to stand, and Long lost Jerrick McKinnon when he passed into his zone from Baker's on a 3rd & 3, allowing McKinnon to walk in from 17 yards out for a touchdown and a 14-0 lead.
  • Miami's next drive started with a nine-yard run by Ahmed, then a 14-yard slant to Waddle that he nearly broke. A deep in to Hill netted 19 more yards, but two plays later, a tunnel screen to Hill resulted in disaster when he coughed up the ball, which was recovered, lateraled, and returned 59 yards for a score and a seemingly insurmountable 21-0 advantage just before the half. Replays showed that Hill never really had control of the catch to begin with, but no formal review ever seemed to occur, leading one to wonder whether the replay system ever made the trip to Germany.
  • Another three-and-out closed a brutal half for the Dolphins offense, as Tua's happy feet led to a couple of bad throws. After the Bailey punt, Mahomes kneeled on the ball to send the teams into the halftime locker room.
  • The 'Fins started the second half with an 11-yard Mostert run, but -- as often seemed to be the case in this one -- a late flag nullified even the slightest sign of life offensively. A Williams hold put Miami at 2nd & 17, and a miscommunication between Tua and Ced Wilson and a seven-yard Tua run brought on Bailey yet again.
  • Despite another start deep in its own territory, KC picked up a quick first down, but the refs finally called a third-down hold. On 3rd & 18, Mahomes broke the pocket, put a move on Baker, and nearly got the full distance before a good hit by Elliott stopped the rush and forced a punt.
  • Back-to-back Tua passes to Jeff Wilson and Smythe covered 20 yards, and a six-yard dump to Smythe converted a key 3rd & 3. A hold in the secondary nullified a Chiefs sack, and a play-action, jump-ball deep shot to Cedrick Wilson was reeled in for a 31-yard touchdown, trimming the margin to 21-7.
  • Kansas City began the following possession with a first down, but Chubb swatted down a pass that miraculously landed harmlessly between two Miami defenders. On a 3rd & 20 play, Chubb didn't let another opportunity for a turnover go by, as he sacked Mahomes and knocked the ball loose. Sieler pounced on the fumble, though he ill-advisedly tried to get up and run with it. The end result was a massive turnover and a big momentum shift for the Dolphins.
  • A hard run by Mostert was yet again called back due to a late flag, this time on a shaky Jackson hold. Tua didn't gain any yards on a scramble, then Hill dropped another pass. A gift personal foul on an inexplicable cheap, late hit by Chris Jones on Jackson converted a 3rd & 20. On the next play, Mostert took advantage by cutting hard, following a Smythe block, and scooting through a crease for 13 yards and a touchdown to close the gap to 21-14 as the third quarter closed.
  • Kansas City responded with a couple of first downs on short passes and hard runs, but a long 3rd & 9 throw was perfectly defended by Kohou, leading to yet another Chiefs punt.
  • The Dolphins countered with a 12-play drive that took up more than half the quarter (7:57) -- but only covered 34 yards and ended in a punt. Three straight Mostert runs covered 17 yards, though one of the carries led to a fumble that Claypool fortuitously recovered. A short Hill completion converted a 3rd & 3, then Tua found Waddle for 13 on a triple-option pass. Another Hill grab converted a 3rd & 6, but a pitch to Ahmed ran directly into a linebacker blitz that resulted in a six-yard loss. Tua was then sacked on a play that appeared to feature Armstead being held to allow a free blitzer, and a 3rd & 26 play was incomplete, with Tua seeming to get hit in the face without a penalty. The disappointing drive ended with a 52-yard punt by Bailey that was fielded on the 2-yard line, with Goode and Long dragging the returner down at the 10-yard line.
  • Three plays later, the Chiefs got cute on a 3rd & 1, and Chubb made a stellar play to overcome a chop block and pressure Mahomes into a costly throwaway.
  • A net punt of 56 yards gave the 'Fins poorer field position than anticipated, but back-to-back Mostert runs covered 44 yards, each featuring stunning stiff-arms. However, Miami inexplicably gave up on the run at the two-minute warning, with first- and second-down throws being wild due to a jittery Tua. On 3rd & 10, the signal-caller threw a wounded duck that landed 15 yards behind a wide-open Wilson on what was later deemed a miscommunication. The Dolphins barely had time to lament the missed easy touchdown, as Tua mishandled a shotgun snap against a cover-zero look that resulted in a 13-yard fumble loss. Not only did Tua jump on the ball instead of trying to pick it up and fire a Hail Mary, but the zero coverage saw Waddle win immediately off the line for what was likely to be an easy score.
  • Two kneeldowns by Mahomes punctuated the brutal finish for the 'Fins in a game that could have lasting ramifications for the season.

2023 Schedule

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