Wednesday, January 11, 2023

Day 1,033, Quasi-Quarantine: Dolphins-Patriots Game 16 Review

 

Minus at least four Pro Bowl-caliber starters (not counting players on injured reserve), Miami fought valiantly on the road at New England, but made too many mistakes and absorbed too many bad officiating calls to avert a fifth straight loss. The latest in a series of devastating defeats may have closed the door on the Dolphins' playoff chances for the campaign.

Once again, the 'Fins outgained (333-249) their opponent, gained more first downs (21 to 14), and won the time-of-possession (33:48 to 26:12) battle. However, they were shut out in the turnover battle (2-0), were called for nine penalties, and were on the wrong end of a number of shady whistles, with coach Mike McDaniel falling to 0-4 on replay challenges on the season to boot. With Tua Tagovailoa out due to a concussion, Teddy Bridgewater took over before dislocating his pinkie finger, and that's when Dolphins Nation turned its lonely eyes to seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson.

With no margin for error, the 'Fins couldn't fade a missed field goal and a defensive score for the Patsies in a two-point game.

On to the why-did-we-ever-believe recap ...


Offense
  • Miami did a better job of forcing the run even when there wasn't immediate success. The undermanned unit managed to convert all three red-zone trips into touchdowns and two of three fourth downs into first downs. However, the 'Fins misfired on 10 of 14 third-down efforts and lost two turnovers.
  • It was a gutsy effort by Bridgewater, who hit 12 of 19 passes for 161 yards and a touchdown and scrambled once for six yards. He was sacked once and threw a costly interception among his 44 snaps, but made something out of nothing and was nifty sliding around the pocket. After Bridgewater's injury, Thompson came on for 37 snaps, and the 25-year-old connected on 12 of 21 passes for 104 yards and a late score. Despite only being sacked once, he was under constant pressure, but he showed good mobility in extending plays and scrambling for four yards (another first-down run was nullified by penalty). He was inaccurate on a couple of balls -- including a bizarre sideline interception -- but Thompson performed admirably considering the lack of preparation and the size of the moment.
  • At running back, Jeff Wilson got 46 snaps, running 15 times for 45 yards and catching three passes (on seven targets) for 31 yards. Raheem Mostert got 17 touches in his 30 snaps, running nine times for 29 yards and grabbing all eight targets for 62 yards and a touchdown. "Angry Mostert" is a thing, as he broke five tackles on one pass he turned into a 25-yard gain, but he was fortunate that his clear fumble was missed by the officials. Playing just six days after thumb surgery, fullback Alec Ingold managed 11 snaps but did not catch his only target on a miscommunication with Thompson. Salvon Ahmed came in for two snaps, contributing an eight-yard catch, but the bigger story was that Miami played Wilson and Mostert in the same backfield on a few occasions. Both quarterbacks proved more adept at finding checkdowns out of the backfield (hence 16 targets to running backs), which added to the RB value, but Wilson missed too many holes and Mostert continues to put the ball on the ground.
  • New England managed to limit Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to just one 20-plus-yard catch among them. The receiving corps also dropped too many balls, making it even harder for the second- and third-string quarterbacks to compete. Hill caught four of seven targets for 55 yards and committed an illegal shift in his 58 snaps, while Waddle reeled in three of five targets for 52 yards  in his 54 snaps. Trent Sherfield was targeted six times in 42 snaps, pulling in only two for 30 yards, while Rivers Cracraft (17 snaps) and Cedrick Wilson (11 snaps) were not targeted. The Dolphins have been struggling to find creative ways to get the ball in Waddle's hands more often, and it is costing the offense a lot of explosive ability.
  • At tight end, Durham Smythe had a nine-yard grab in his 42 snaps and Mike Gesicki snared two of four targets for 18 yards and a touchdown in his 30 snaps. Hunter Long got a dozen snaps in reserve.
  • With tackles Terron Armstead, Eric Fisher, and Greg Little all out due to injury, the backups did a respectable job until Kendall Lamm also exited the game hurt. Liam Eichenberg returned as the starter at left guard after missing seven games, but he was accorded a 36.0 grade by Pro Football Focus. Right guard Robert Hunt and right tackle Brandon Shell both had false starts, and center Connor Williams had a subpar game as well. All told, Miami surrendered a staggering 21 pressures on 45 pass-blocking snaps, according to PFF.

Defense
  • Despite missing a number of key players, the defense bailed out the offense out time and again. The 'Fins limited the Patriots to just 249 yards and 4.4 yards per play, sacking Mac Jones three times but failing to create a turnover. New England converted both red zone trips into touchdowns, but went just 5 of 13 on third down and 0 for 1 on fourth down. Reduced to playing primarily special-teamers in the secondary, miscommunications were understandable but cost the Dolphins dearly down the stretch.
  • Once again, Miami relied on stalwarts Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler (54 snaps each) up front, with Wilkins garnering six tackles, one sack, one tackle for loss, one batted pass, and one quarterback hit. Similarly, Sieler delivered six tackles, a sack, a stop for loss, and a quarterback hit.
  • At nose tackle, Raekwon Davis played one of his best games, making three tackles in 41 snaps. John Jenkins added three stops in his 17 snaps, while Josiah Bronson got five snaps in reserve.
  • With Bradley Chubb out due to ankle and hand injuries on the weak side, Andrew Van Ginkel took on a larger role, delivering three tackles, a sack, and a quarterback hit in 38 snaps. In his 28 snaps, Melvin Ingram had one solo tackle.
  • On the strong side, Jaelan Phillips had three solo stops and a quarterback hit in 53 snaps. His recent tireless play has given the 'Fins an added dimension up front.
  • Playing against his former team, Elandon Roberts was everywhere, posting 10 tackles, a sack, a stop for a loss, and a quarterback hit in 41 snaps on the inside. Jerome Baker added five tackles and a pass breakup in his 49 snaps, while Duke Riley earned just five snaps in reserve.
  • The 'Fins probably never envisioned starting Kader Kohou and Justin Crossen all 59 snaps as starting corners with the playoffs on the line, but that's where the team found itself with the latest injury to Xavien Howard. In fact, when Jevon Holland exited the game briefly, Miami was without any projected starters in the five secondary spots. Kohou had two solo tackles, a stop for a loss, and a holding penalty, while Crossen had one solo tackle to go with two pass interference flags in a difficult outing. Even Noah Ighbinoghene was forced into action, not recording a stat in his 30 snaps. 
  • Eric Rowe contributed just two tackles in his 52 snaps at strong safety, and he was beaten in coverage too often by tight end Hunter Henry. Rookie Verone McKinley is becoming close to unplayable, failing to record a stat in his 10 snaps, while Clayton Fejedelem had a single snap in reserve.
  • Holland notched eight tackles -- including seven solo stops -- in a valiant effort at strong safety. Elijah Campbell saw seven snaps in reserve.

Special teams
  • Jason Sanders fell to 3 of 11 on 50-plus-yard field goals over the past two seasons when he missed a crucial field goal. He did make all three extra points, but the 'Fins are likely to be faced with a difficult decision on his status in the offseason. For the record, New England's Nick Folk missed an extra point in the contest.
  • Thomas Morstead was a field-position weapon, punting four times for a 47.3-yard average and putting all four inside the 20-yard line in a phenomenal performance.
  • Mostert returned three kickoffs for a 26.3-yard average, while Wilson was steady on tough punts in the wind, returning three for 13 yards.
  • Smythe led offensive players with 14 special-teams snap, while Bethel and Fejedelem played 23 snaps in the kicking game to pace defensive players. Fejedelem recorded a tackle and Campbell was whistled for holding.

Momentum plays
  • The 'Fins got a massive break (which they would pay for dearly for the rest of the game) when a clear fumble by Mostert was nullified by the officials ruling that forward progress had stopped. That break was quickly balanced when a deep ball to Hill was ruled out of bounds despite the receiver appearing to have gained control and gotten both feet down. Forced to punt, Miami got a nice tackle from Van Ginkel to pin New England inside its 20-yard line.
  • Four bad calls from a crew clearly seeking to make up for a missed call in the Dolphins' favor powered the ensuing Patriots drive. A late flag for holding on a third-down incompletion was followed two plays later by a failed Miami challenge of a New England reception near the sideline that was nearly identical to the Hill play. Another third-down jump ball was nearly intercepted by Holland, but a bad holding call on Kohou continued the possession. Three plays later, on another third down, a blatant pick play that featured Henry blocking a cornerback well before the ball was even thrown was uncalled, gifting the home team an early touchdown. If you want to understand why the Patsies are so hated outside of Boston, just watch this drive on loop.
  • The 'Fins went three-and-out after a successful fourth-down run was nullified by a Hunt false start, but Morstead was drilled on the punt, leading to a running-into-the-kicker call that should have been a roughness penalty. Facing another 4th & 1, Miami went for it again, with Wilson powering for the first down. On the subsequent 3rd & 6, Bridgewater found Wilson out of the backfield for a first down, before the quarterback then hit Hill with a beautiful cross-field throw for 19 yards and found Gesicki for 14 more. Two plays later, a short lateral to Hill tied the score when the wideout skirted the sideline behind a great Sherfield block.
  • New England responded with a 29-yard strike to Henry on 3rd & 6 and an 18-yard run by Rhamondre Stephenson, but Roberts and Sieler sacked Jones on a 3rd & 1 play to force a punt.
  • Five straight touches for Mostert covered 44 yards, highlighted by a short pass that saw the running back break five tackles for a 25-yard pickup. Waddle couldn't come up with a 3rd & 7 throw that he normally catches, however, and Jason Sanders went wide right on a 51-yard attempt that appeared to have been pushed by the wind.
  • On the subsequent three-and-out by New England, the officials ignored a clear grounding and a hold on back-to-back plays, then threw a holding flag on Campbell during the punt return.
  • Miami picked a couple of first downs, but Bridgewater was sacked by three Patriots after the interior of the line caved in, forcing a punt at the two-minute warning. Morstead responded by delivering a 46-yarder that bounced out of bounds at New England's 2-yard line.
  • Damien Harris ripped off an 11-yard run to get the Patriots out of trouble, allowing the home team to run out the clock and head into halftime deadlocked at 7-7.
  • The Dolphins forced a three-and-out to start the second half, earning good field position when Wilson made a great running catch of the punt before absorbing a costly hit. Unfortunately, Miami immediately went three-and-out as well, getting another strong punt by Morstead to pin New England at its 10-yard line.
  • The 'Fins delivered another three-and-out, and with boos casually cascading down from the home crowd, Wilson made another strong play in fielding the punt at the Patriots' 41-yard line. 
  • Bridgewater started the next drive with a 23-yard strike to Waddle, then a nine-yard run by Wilson set up a first & goal opportunity. Two plays later, Bridgewater shot-putted the ball forward while being hit, finding Mostert in the front of the end zone for a short touchdown and a 14-7 lead.
  • After an initial New England first down, Baker did not carry the slot receiver deep enough into coverage, and the miscommunication resulted in a 29-yard pickup on a 3rd & 5 play. The Dolphin "D" stiffened from there, forcing a 49-yard Folk field goal to trim the margin to 14-10.
  • On a 3rd & 15 play on the following possession, Bridgewater tried to force the action instead of checking down, and he paid the price. Kyle Duggar baited him into an interception, then weaved 39 yards for a score on the return, punctuating it with a nasty stiff-arm of Bridgewater that appeared to exacerbate an existing finger injury for the signal-caller.
  • Now trailing 16-14 after the missed extra point, the 'Fins turned to third-string rookie Thompson. A dump-down to Mostert on 3rd & 5 turned into a 17-yard gain, with a roughing-the-passer penalty tacked on. As the fourth quarter began, a mysterious and innocuous illegal shift on Hill negated an 11-yard Thompson scramble on 3rd & 9. On the next play, Hill bobbled a pass thrown behind him, allowing the cornerback to pick it and then actually keeping the corner in-bounds on his tackle attempt.
  • After the devastating plays from the offense, the defense came through with another three-and-out, punctuated by a near-interception by Ighbinoghene after Campbell pressure on a Jones deep ball.
  • Following the Patriots punt, Thompson made a strong throw to Waddle on 3rd & 6, with a clear helmet-to-helmet hit and/or spearing on Jabrill Peppers -- one of multiple cheap shots by Peppers -- inexplicably going uncalled on the tackle. Miami came up short on a 3rd & 7 pass to Hill, forcing another Morstead punt that was downed at New England's 11-yard line.
  • The Patsies got going with a 16-yard screen pass that featured bad Miami body language and an uncalled block in the back on Phillips. Three plays later, Jones used an uncalled hold to find Jakobi Meyers for 25 yards on a 3rd & 5 play that victimized McKinley. Crossen committed pass interference on another underthrown 3rd & 5 pass to Meyers, then on 3rd & goal, Meyers was left uncovered for an easy score -- after a Miami timeout. The miscommunication punctuated an 11-play drive that allowed New England to forge ahead, 23-14.
  • Running for his life on all four plays, Thompson checked it down on a 4th & 16 play to hand the ball back to the Patsies.
  • New England attempted to run clock on the following possession, but inexplicably went for it on 4th & 4, creating an easy sack by Sieler to give Miami the ball at its 39-yard line.
  • Using short passes, the 'Fins moved the ball slowly. Following the two-minute warning, Thompson found Hill for 17 yards on a 4th & 7 play. Two plays later, he found Sherfield for 23 yards, then extended a first & goal play by reversing field before finding Gesicki in the back of the end zone with a well-thrown ball on the run to cut the lead to 23-21.
  • A lackluster onsides kick never got a needed bounce, and Henry easily fell on the ball without a Dolphin diving for it or even touching him down. Two New England kneeldowns mercifully ended a fifth consecutive frustrating setback for the 'Fins.

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