Scooter & Hum: Day 1,027, Quasi-Quarantine: Dolphins-Packers Game 15 Review

Despite holding a 10-point first-half lead and limiting Green Bay to just 4.6 yards per offensive play, Miami couldn't withstand a second-half collapse. Tua Tagovailoa threw three fourth-quarter interceptions and Jason Sanders missed a field goal, allowing the Packers to mostly sit back and watch the Dolphins beat themselves. The fourth consecutive loss further fed feelings of desperation around the franchise as a once-sure-thing playoff bid slipped further away.

In the second-coldest home game (46 degrees) in Miami history, the 'Fins were outcoached (Mike McDaniel largely abandoned the running game and missed a challenge that would have overturned a long first-half catch), lost the turnover (4 to 1) and penalty (8 to 5) battles, and were beaten soundly in the third phase. A while back, I pointed out that it was more than possible that Aaron Rodgers could steal Miami's soul on Christmas Day, and though his role was marginal, it most definitely happened.

On to the I-called-it-weeks-ago recap ...

Offense

On the one hand, there is not a ton to complain about when the unit averages 8.4 yards per play. Miami racked up 376 yards, but made just two trips to the red zone. After running for 58 yards in the first half, the 'Fins ran for just 24 in the second, despite averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. The turnovers torpedoed the team's momentum, and they are so out of character for Tagovailoa that one has to consider the impact of the concussion that he was diagnosed with in the days after the contest.
While Tua hit 16 of 25 passes for 310 yards and a score, it's becoming clear that teams are getting a read on him based on comments from opposing coaches and analysts. While the signal-caller has become adept at moving back-seven defenders with his eyes, he is throwing without being positive that the misdirections are working -- thus the trio of crunch-time picks. Tua also was sacked twice, fumbled twice, and ran once for no gain. That he entered the concussion protocol following the game has to be factored in as context when assessing his late-game performance.
At running back, Jeff Wilson outsnapped Raheem Mostert (30-26), which is likely a response to Mostert largely being responsible for two turnovers. Mostert started off hot and ended up with 45 yards on just eight carries, with two catches for four yards. He had a crucial fumble and all indications were that he was at fault for one of Tua's fourth-quarter interceptions when he ran the wrong route. Wilson rushed nine times for 37 yards with a long of 12 and a touchdown, adding a three-yard catch. Fullback Alec Ingold was targeted twice without a catch in his 27 snaps, and generally looked a bit off as he deals with injury.
Leading the wideouts, Jaylen Waddle (40 snaps) made the most of his six targets, reeling in five for 143 yards and an 84-yard touchdown. Tyreek Hill (37 snaps) added four catches for 103 yards on his six targets, with a 52-yarder to set up Wilson's score. Trent Sherfield was the only other wideout to earn a target, and he made the most his two, converting a pair of third downs with 25 yards in receptions in his 22 snaps. Cedrick Wilson (13 snaps) and Braylon Sanders (seven) were not targeted in limited action.
As per usual, Miami largely ignored its tight ends, with Mike Gesicki playing just 12 snaps and earning two targets -- one good for 24 yards and the other resulting in a game-clinching interception. Durham Smythe got 32 snaps and caught an eight-yard pass on the play that likely caused the Tua concussion. Hunter Long got four snaps, but did make a key block on the Wilson touchdown.
Up front, the line played all 50 snaps together and did an admirable job against an active Green Bay pass rush. Left tackle Terron Armstead, center Connor Williams, and right guard Robert Hunt were all whistled for holding, though Hunt did recover a Tua fumble. Left guard Robert Jones was noticeable on a couple of second-level blocks on first-half running plays. Williams, in particular, seems to be fading a bit down the stretch, as he followed his holding flag with a bad snap that resulted in a fumble that Tua had to fall on. All in all, however, the offensive line played winning football, and it felt like the game plan could have leaned more heavily -- instead of less -- on the running game in the second half.

Defense

A battered unit played more than respectably against one of the best quarterbacks of all time, but playing with house money, Green Bay's YOLO approach wore Miami down. The Dolphins stopped the Packers on 10 of their first 12 third-down attempts, but the visitors ended up converting 3 of 5 fourth-down efforts -- after entering the game just 8 for 23 on the season in such situations. Despite Green Bay having 20 more offensive plays than the 'Fins, the Packers were held to 301 yards and 4.6 yards per play, with Miami limiting them to touchdowns on two of five red-zone visits. The "D" deserved a better outcome, but too often this season, the unit hasn't come up with the game-turning fourth-quarter play it needs to preserve victory.
As a longtime skeptic of Christian Wilkins as a difference-maker, I have to acknowledge his stellar play at defensive end this season. In 63 snaps, he recorded five tackles and a pair of batted passes. His partner in crime, Zach Sieler, delivered three tackles and a stop for a loss in his 59 snaps, while Justin Zimmer played four snaps in reserve.
At nose tackle, Raekwon Davis notched three tackles in 41 snaps, with his biggest contribution coming on special teams, when he stopped a fake punt attempt cold. John Jenkins did not record a stat in his 22 snaps, but he offset an offsides penalty by drawing a holding call.
Bradley Chubb was limited to 28 snaps on the weak side, but he contributed a tackle, a quarterback hit, and a number of key pressures -- including one that led to an interception -- despite being injured. Melvin Ingram only played 13 snaps, failing to record a stat.
Jaelan Phillips collected six tackles in his 55 snaps, but he picked up another questionable roughing-the-passer penalty, leading one to wonder whether he is becoming a target of officials at this point. In 33 snaps, Andrew Van Ginkel had two solo tackles, including a big stop for loss in space in a goal-to-go situation.
In the middle, Elandon Roberts had a strong outing, picking up seven tackles, a sack, a stop for loss, and a quarterback hit in 51 snaps. Jerome Baker made three solo stops in 64 snaps, and depth continues to be an issue in this spot. Duke Riley played just seven snaps, while Sam Eguavoen played two snaps in goal-line situations, giving up a passing touchdown and failing to stop A.J. Dillon on a goal-line tackle attempt.
Kader Kohou and Xavien Howard both played 64 snaps at cornerback, with Kohou earning his first career interception to go with five tackles and two pass breakups. Howard had four tackles, a stop for loss, and a pass breakup, while Keion Crossen registered a tackle and a pass breakup in his 18 snaps. Kohou bounced back nicely after a difficult first half in which he was targeted extensively.
At strong safety, Eric Rowe was active in his 53 snaps, recording six solo tackles, a sack, a stop for loss, a pass breakup, and a quarterback hit. Verone McKinley added a solo tackle in 14 snaps.
Playing all 66 snaps, Jevon Holland posted eight solo tackles and a stop for a loss at free safety. Elijah Campbell played five snaps in reserve. While Holland has been strong in his sophomore campaign, his lack of game-changing plays (one interception, one forced fumble) has been noticeable in the back end of the defense.

Special teams

I've been reluctant to join the chorus in calling for Jason Sanders to be replaced based on previous excellence, but this game may speed his departure from Miami. On the plus side, he connected on two fields (including a 46-yarder) and two extra points. On the down side, he missed a massive field goal again, played a role in surrendering a 93-yard kick return, and hit an awful squib kick to give Green Bay great field position. Trust in Sanders has eroded, and that usually spells the end of a kicker's tenure.
Thomas Morstead didn't see much action, with just a single punt that went for 46 yards and was downed inside the 20-yard line.
Mostert attempted to offset the big Green Bay return, but averaged just 19 yards on his six kickoff returns, and remains much too tentative in the role. Ingold had an eight-yard return on an end-of-half squib kick.
In the positive column, the Dolphins did snuff out a fake punt and allowed no return yardage on punts.
Justin Bethel and Clayton Fejedelem led defensive players with 21 special-teams snaps, and each contributed a pair of tackles, although Fejedelem was called for holding on the opening kickoff. Smythe paced offensive players with 13 snaps in the kicking game.
The reality is that Miami has been one of the worst special-teams units in the league under coordinator Danny Crossman, and the braintrust has to be under immense pressure to upgrade the role following the season.

Momentum plays

To start the game, a pair of Mostert bursts went for 14 and 17 yards, with a 14-yard strike from Tua to Hill mixed in. However, a deep ball for Hill fell incomplete when pass interference was uncalled, forcing the 'Fins to settle for a 46-yarder from Sanders to take the lead at 3-0.
Keisean Nixon immediately responded, racing 93 yards with the ensuing kickoff to set up a goal-to-go opportunity for Green Bay. However, Rodgers took a Roberts sack despite having plenty of time to get rid of the ball, and Holland nearly came up with a third-down interception off a dropped pass. The Packers were forced to settle for a 36-yard Mason Crosby field goal to tie the game.
One play later, Tua hit Waddle on a deep cross, and the wideout picked up a strong block from Hill to skirt down the right sideline for 84 yards and a touchdown to quickly make it 10-3.
Green Bay targeted Kohou on a pair of slants that went for 31 yards, and on a 3rd & 8 play, the Packers got away with a pair of uncalled holds to allow Rodgers to scramble for 12 yards and a first down. A clear offensive facemask was initially called before the flag was randomly picked up on the very next play, but two more stops by the defense ensued. On fourth and goal, Eguavoen somehow lost 60-year-old tight end Marcedes Lewis, and Rodgers hit him easily for a devastating touchdown to tie the score again.
On the next drive, Wilson busted loose for a dozen yards and Tua hit Hill for 18 more. However, a late flag on an apparent Williams hold was followed by a bad Williams snap that Tua had to fall on. On 3rd & 21, Gesicki was dramatically overpowered on a block attempt, leading to an incompletion on a tunnel screen, forcing Morstead's lone punt of the afternoon.
On the final play of the first quarter, Rodgers went after Kohou again, hitting Allen Lazard for 42 yards on a well-thrown ball. However, Phillips ran down Rodgers on another scramble attempt after the signal-caller avoided a Baker sack, forcing a 4th & 2. The Packers went for it, but Rodgers missed Christian Watson -- who had a step on Kohou -- on a deep ball, giving the ball back to the Dolphins.
A 13-yard Mostert run was nullified by another late flag, this time a hold on Armstead. Tua then found Gesicki for 24 yards, with an uncalled late hit to boot. Two plays later, Tua rolled out and delivered a beautiful deep strike to Hill for 52 yards. Wilson punched it in from a yard out on the next play to push Miami ahead, 17-10.
A hold on the following kick return by Green Bay drew a mock cheer from the crowd after a series of flags against the home team. Miami forced a three-and-out, and after Davis stuffed a fake punt, the Dolphins had tremendous field position at the Packers' 20-yard line.
After a first-play hold on Hunt, Tua threw a 12-yard dart to Waddle. Tua was sacked on the following play, not seeing a wide-open Hill in front of him, setting up a 3rd & 14 that he converted with a 15-yard strike to Sherfield. The quarterback again held the ball too long, resulting in a sack and fumble that Hunt fell on. On 3rd & goal, a pointless short pass to Mostert got two yards, causing Miami to settle for a short Sanders field goal. The kicker was knocked down on the kick, but no call was made, making the score 20-10 'Fins.
The Dolphins forced another three-and-out, punctuated by a clear hold on Sieler that went uncalled and Howard dropping an interception.
Taking over at their own 41-yard line, Tua hit Smythe for eight yards, but on the next play, Mostert coughed up the ball, giving the Packers life.
The 'Fins got a huge third-down stop by Sieler, but Watson held on to a 4th & 1 throw despite a jarring hit by Rowe. The Green Bay luck continued when two more pass breakups somehow eluded Miami defenders to hit the turf harmlessly, and then a 46-yard field goal barely tucked inside the left corner of the upright and crossbar to trim the margin to 20-13 at halftime.
The Packers put together an 11-play drive to start the second half, converting another 4th & 1 on a Rodgers sneak and then getting a 3rd & 9 conversion when Rodgers had forever to find a running back who was finally left uncovered. Rodgers then avoided a Roberts sack and lofted a 31-yard pass to Lewis, who was awarded a catch even though the ball clearly hit the ground and Miami didn't challenge it. Two hard Dillon runs resulted in a touchdown that evened the score at 20.
On the following possession, Mostert ripped off a nine-yard run on a 4th & 1 play from Miami's own 34-yard line. Tua then hit Waddle for 24 yards before nearly throwing an underhanded interception. After Armstead was beaten on a 3rd & 8 play that forced a Tua throwaway, Sanders missed well right on a 48-yard attempt.
Three straight Rodgers completions covered 28 yards, but on a 3rd & 15 play, Chubb hit Rodgers as he threw, and Kohou pulled in an end-zone interception on a deep pass intended for Lazard, who was trying to draw a penalty instead of trying to catch the ball.
One play later, Tua fired too high for Hill, giving Jaire Alexander an easy interception that he returned for 23 yards.
After a ridiculous roughing-the-passer penalty on Phillips gift-wrapped a Green Bay first down on a 2nd & 15 play, Dillon fumbled on the next play, but Wilkins was being held and unable to fight for the loose ball. Somehow, no Dolphin defenders were in the vicinity, allowing the Packers to once again avoid a crucial turnover. Another third-down pressure by Chubb forced an incompletion and a short Crosby field goal to push Green Bay ahead, 23-20.
On the next drive, Waddle climbed the ladder for a 16-yard grab, then Sherfield reeled in a 10-yarder to convert a 3rd & 7. Tua found Hill for 19 more, but two plays later, the quarterback fired for Mostert, who continued his route instead of stopping, handing the Packers another interception.
Two plays later, Howard was beaten for a 22-yard gain, but the defense stiffened again, forcing another short field goal to extend the advantage to 26-20.
Down a touchdown, Tua took only two more plays to throw the game-clinching interception. His third pick of the quarter came when he didn't read the cornerback undercutting Gesicki on an out route. Hill was wide open underneath and the throw had very little zip to it, leading one to wonder how the concussion Tua was later diagnosed with impacted the late-game play.
Three straight kneeldowns cemented the 'Fins' fourth straight setback.