Day 929, Quasi-Quarantine: Dolphins-Bills Game 3 Review

The Bills dominated the stats, doubling up Miami in time of possession (40:40 to 19:20), plays (90 to 39) first downs (31 to 15), and yards (497 to 212).

And lost.

In a game that had to be seen to be believed, the Dolphins used a stunning defensive performance in insane heat (three Bills suffered from heat exhaustion) and did enough on offense (three for three on red zone opportunities and zero turnovers) to outlast maybe the best team in football, 21-19. Having bested three of the best five coaches in the league and finding three different ways to win, the 'Fins are 3-0 under new coach Mike McDaniel.

On to the still-don't-believe-that-happened recap ...

Offense

• Maintaining the ball for just 39 plays, Miami made the most of its opportunities, converting all three of its red zone visits into touchdowns, limiting penalties (just four for 20 on the day), and not committing any turnovers. While the Dolphins remain one-dimensional -- managing just 41 rushing yards on 17 attempts -- complementary football is allowing the offense to find its identity early in the season.
• Coming back to earth after last week's scintillating performance, Tua Tagovailoa threw just 18 passes, connecting on 13 for 186 yards and a touchdown. He was sacked once, ran once for no gain, suffered a couple of controversial injuries that knocked him out for three plays, and narrowly avoided throwing a game-clinching pick-six. After appearing to be concussed after a late hit, Tua yielded to Teddy Bridgewater, who came in and had a disastrous series that included taking a sack and nearly throwing an interception. All in all, Tua protected the football, avoided the fumbles that have plagued him, and was at his best in the red zone, giving Miami a chance to win.
• Raheem Mostert once again led the way in snaps with 24, though he managed just 11 yards on eight carries and did not catch either of his two targets in the passing game. Chase Edmonds was in for 19 snaps, rushing six times for 21 yards and a pair of gritty touchdowns and adding a grab for six yards. He showed toughness after bouncing back from a wicked unsportsmanlike hit and scoring on the next play, showing that he may be a surprising option in short-yardage situations. Alec Ingold carried once for no yards and was targeted a single time in the passing game without a reception, not making the impact he did a week ago. The rushing attack is in rough shape after three weeks, so expect the 'Fins to explore its options in this area during the mini-bye after their upcoming Thursday night game.
• At tight end, Durham Smythe again led the way, reeling in three passes for 23 yards and contributing key blocks. Playing on the franchise tag, Mike Gesicki continues to struggle to find his role in this offense, playing just 17 snaps and making a one-handed catch for six yards.
• Jaylen Waddle continues to shine, hauling in four catches on six targets for 102 yards and adding nine yards on an end-around. Most of his catches were of the clutch variety, cementing his status as one of the top young wideouts in the game -- though all but 25 of his receiving yards came on a single drive, showing the strength of a Buffalo defense that was missing several starters. Tyreek Hill was quiet, drawing just four targets and posting two receptions for 33 yards and also being called for an illegal shift. River Cracraft kept his perfect season alive, catching his only pass for an 11-yard touchdown after last week's one-catch, one-score performance. Trent Sherfield contributed a five-yard reception in 27 snaps, but did factor into a huge special teams gaffe that could have cost Miami the game when he backed into punter Thomas Morstead to cause a safety. Recovering from injury, Cedrick Wilson saw just five snaps. In time, I believe the 'Fins will need Wilson as their lone height presence on the receiving corps.
• Up front, the 'Fins allowed just five pressures against a respected Bills defensive front. However, there was little to no movement in the running game and Miami had to run shorter routes to offset the Buffalo pass rush. Center Connor Williams had a false start, left guard Liam Eichenberg was whistled for holding, and right tackle Greg Little was called for ineligible man downfield penalty. Overall, the line appears to be steadily jelling, with obvious room for improvements.

Defense

• Kyle Allen threw 63 passes for Buffalo in insufferable heat, but that was a factor of how much the Bills controlled the ball and not a reflection of an inability to run the ball -- the visitors averaged five yards a carry (23 attempts for 115 yards). Buffalo was close to unstoppable on third down (11 for 18) and also converted two of three fourth-down tries. So how did the 'Fins survive? Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer tried to offset the heat by having 17 players see action on at least 23 percent of the snaps, and his unit limited the Bills to two touchdowns in four red zone attempts.
• The best version of Emmanuel Ogbah showed up for Miami, and his performance deserves more shine. He was credited with a single solo tackle, but he delivered four quarterback hits, was held a lot with no calls, had his best rushes in the most crucial situations, drew a critical holding penalty in the final seconds, and got a hand on a field goal to usher it wide in a vital moment. Ogbah was supported by Christian Wilkins (five tackles) and Zach Sieler (four stops, one quarterback hit) in finding a reserve of energy when the team needed it most despite the conditions.
• With Raekwon Davis inactive due to a knee injury, John Jenkins played 37 snaps at nose tackle, contributing a tackle.
• At outside linebacker, Melvin Ingram played 57 snaps, registering three solo tackles, two sacks, one stop for loss, two quarterback hits, and a fumble recovery. Jaelan Phillips played 62 snaps on the other side, missing some tackles but recording two stops, one tackle for loss, and a pass breakup that he nearly picked off. Andrew Van Ginkel was back for 18 snaps in reserve -- posting three tackles and a quarterback hit -- while Trey Flowers contributed a solo stop in 41 snaps. While Phillips has disappointed and Van Ginkel has been injured, Ingram has been a revelation -- cemented by being named AFC Defensive Player of the Month for September.
• In the middle, Jerome Baker led the squad with 13 tackles, adding a stop for loss, half a sack, one pass breakup and a quarterback hit in 83 snaps. Elandon Roberts contributed eight tackles in his 47 snaps despite some crucial missed tackles, while Duke Riley had five stops in his 28 snaps. Despite the conditions, Sam Eguavoen saw only three snaps from scrimmage.
• At corner, it was more of a vintage Xavien Howard performance despite some shaky moments. He shook off an early personal foul, a potential coverage bust that led to an easy score, and another dropped pick-six to record six tackles and two huge pass breakups in 81 snaps. Nik Needham saw a staggering 91 snaps, delivering five tackles and a critical late pass breakup. Kader Kohou had five tackles in 70 snaps, while Keion Crossen had a solo stop and a pass breakup in 11 snaps. In perhaps the biggest indicator that he will never factor in Miami's defensive plans, Noah Ighbinoghene played two special teams snaps and had zero reps from scrimmage in a game where players were dropping left and right due to exhaustion.
• Brandon Jones notched nine tackles and a pass breakup in 83 snaps, with Eric Rowe adding four solo stops in 27 snaps at strong safety.
• At free safety, Jevon Holland was a machine. Playing a team-high 92 snaps, he registered 10 tackles, 1.5 sacks, two pass breakups, a quarterback hit, and a forced fumble while also serving as punt returner. Without Holland and Ogbah, the 'Fins come nowhere near winning this game.

Special teams

• It was a quiet day for Jason Sanders, but after last week's surrendered kickoff return for a touchdown, that was a good thing. He hammered his kickoffs into the end zone for touchbacks and was perfect on three extra-point tries.
• Thomas Morstead had an eventful afternoon, punting five times for an average of 43.6 yards. He had a long of 60, placed two inside the 20-yard line (including one at the one-yard line), and came up with a booming free kick after the safety. The bad news? He gave up the safety when he punted directly into the arse of his personal protector, Sherfield.
• The return game was nonexistent, as Mostert found no room on his three kickoff returns (54 yards) and Holland fair-caught the lone Beefalo punt.
• The play of the game on special teams came when Justin Bethel vaulted into the end zone to bat a Morstead punt back into the field of play to be downed at the one-yard line. 

Momentum plays

• Buffalo dodged a near fumble by Stephon Diggs and benefited from a weak personal foul call on "X" in a confrontation with Diggs to set up first and goal. After three stops, Miami blitzed, with Roberts seemingly missing an assignment to allow an uncontested fourth-down toss for a score and a 7-0 lead.
• After an initial first down, the Dolphins were forced to punt. On a third-down play, Holland timed a blitz beautifully, knocking the ball out of Allen's hand and allowing Ingram to pounce on it to give Miami the ball on the 7-yard line. Three players later, Edmonds paid it off with a short run to tie the score at 7.
• On a lengthy drive that bled into the second quarter, Allen converted a 4th & 2 with a scramble, then fumbled on an Ingram sack, with Sieler and Jenkins just missing recovering the ball. Buffalo easily converted a 2nd & 19, then found an open receiver on 3rd & goal on what appeared to be a coverage bust by Howard, putting the visitors up 14-7.
• Passes of 17 and 9 yards to Waddle and a 9-yard run by Mostert got the 'Fins moving on the next drive, with Tua firing an 11-yard dart to Cracraft to tie the score.
• Following two quick first downs, pressure by Ogbah forced a dangerous throw back to the middle of the field, with "X" rising high to knock a 3rd & 10 pass away from Diggs and force the lone Buffalo punt of the contest.
• Three plays later, Tua hit Waddle to convert a third down, but got up woozy after a late hit by the Bills. Inexplicably, Bridgewater came in firing, dropping back to throw on three straight plays, resulting in an incompletion, a sack, and a near pick-six to end the drive.
• Some missed tackles gave Buffalo life, but an Ogbah hit on Allen led to a flutterball and an easy pick that was dropped by Brandon Jones. With time running out, Allen fumbled a spike play, forcing him to fire a pass to the sideline that was nearly intercepted by Howard before being snared by Diggs to run out the clock to halftime.
• After intermission, Miami went straight backwards with a -6 run by Mostert and a holding penalty on Eichenberg, forcing a Morstead punt that Bethel made a phenomenal play on to down at the 1-yard line.
• Buffalo appeared to get away with a grounding penalty that would have resulted in a safety on the ensuing play, then went on to convert four third-down plays on a lengthy drive that only resulted in a field goal to make it 17-14 after Ogbah pressured Allen into a third-down throwaway.
• After not seeing the ball for 28 minutes of real time, the Dolphins promptly went three-and-out, catching a break when Buffalo dropped an easy pick-six.
• In a drive that spanned into the fourth quarter, the Bills missed an ugly field goal that looked like it may have been tipped due to the spin. A few days after the game, Ogbah was indeed credited with a block -- the first of his career -- on the attempt.
• A 32-yard deep out to Waddle jolted the 'Fins to life, then the Tua-Waddle connection struck again on 3rd & 22 as Waddle ran an impeccable corner-post route to reel in a perfect throw by Tua for a 45-yard completion. Edmonds dropped a second-down pass, but unnecessary roughness on the Bills nullified the play, and Edmonds hammered in from three yards out to push the Dolphins ahead, 21-17.
• Buffalo overcame a personal foul on Allen when Allen hit Devin Singletary on a delayed wheel route for a 22-yard gain on 3rd & 10. With both teams reeling from exhaustion, missed tackles aided the Bills' drive, along with back-to-back near interceptions by the Dolphins. Allen converted a 3rd & 5 with a nifty run, and after another near-pick by "X," Allen missed a wide-open receiver in the end zone on fourth down.
• A shaky series of plays and poor clock management narrowly avoided a pair of safeties, but Miami couldn't duck a third gaffe when Sherfield backed up into Morstead to result in a butt punt and gift safety for Buffalo to make it 21-19 with 1:33 remaining.
• A stellar punt by Morstead and resulting tackle by Van Ginkel pushed the Bills back to their own 23-yard line. Holland jarred what would have been a 20-yard gain out of Diggs's hands with a jolting hit, then Needham knocked away a sideline pass to a bigger receiver. After a Bills' first down, Ogbah drew a late flag on a clear hold, and on 2nd & 20, Ingram missed a sack and Allen dumped the ball off as he was being hit by Ogbah. The receiver could not get out of bounds thanks to a savvy tackle by Howard, allowing the time to run out to preserve the 21-19 Dolphins victory.

2022 Schedule

Miami 20, New England 7 (1-0)

Miami 42, Baltimore 38 (2-0)

Miami 21, Buffalo 19 (3-0)