Scooter & Hum: Day 1,061, Quasi-Quarantine: Dolphins-Bills Wildcard Playoff Game Review

In a game of mixed feelings, Miami somehow overcame dramatic odds to fall just short, losing 34-31 on the road despite being two-touchdown underdogs in a wildcard playoff contest. The 'Fins erased a 17-point deficit in just seven minutes and took one of the league's best team to the brink with its third-string rookie quarterback.

In addition to being a severely banged-up team, the visitors also had to navigate a staggering officiating discrepancy (Miami: called for nine penalties; Buffalo: called for two penalties).

Despite the modicum of feel-good moments, there is a lot of turmoil to concern yourself with if that's your deal. Miami has still not won a playoff game in nearly a quarter-century and lost six of their last seven games this season. The clock management was beyond woeful, even in the context of having a rookie quarterback at the helm, and the 'Fins were much more conservative than anticipated in what amounted to a YOLO game.

Time has not lessened the disappointment of this outcome -- nor the reality that Miami finished 9-9 during a season in which they started 8-3.

On to the gut-punched-yet-proud recap ...

Offense

We're not going to start sugarcoating at this late date: The playcalling and clock management were borderline disastrous. In 14 possessions, the Dolphins managed a single drive of more than 40 yards and ended up with just 231 total yards. The visitors were just 4 of 16 on third-down attempts and attempted just two fourth-down tries, getting one. After gashing the Bills on the ground in the previous matchup, Miami managed just 42 rushing yards (2.1 yards per carry). The Dolphins had four red-zone opportunities, but converted just two into touchdowns, which ended up being the difference.
Perhaps the best thing Skylar Thompson did on the afternoon was throwing the ball away to avoid sacks. He hit just 18 of 45 attempts for 220 yards, throwing a touchdown and tossing a pair of interceptions. Though he played a part in a delay of game and four false starts, he was let down by the triple threat of coaching (playcalling), receivers (entirely too many drops), and his offensive line (four sacks and constant pressure allowed). Thompson managed just a 51.2 grade from Pro Football Focus, but perhaps the most inexplicable development was a seeming refusal to scramble. A plus athlete, he ran just twice of three yards, often ignoring the open field in front of him to fire ill-advised passes. In a game that desperately needed the threat of his legs, the signal-caller was either instructed not to use them or insisted on staying in the pocket.
Minus Raheem Mostert -- who torched Buffalo a few weeks previous -- Jeff Wilson (calf) and Salvon Ahmed (head) gutted it out through injuries as well. Wilson gained just 23 yards on 10 carries in 38 snaps, though he did score a touchdown and had a 13-yard catch on four targets for a poor 54.2 PFF grade. Ahmed (35 snaps) somehow gained only three yards on five carries, though he was stellar in the passing game, pulling in three of five targets for 45 yards. The previously injured Alec Ingold did not have a touch in his nine snaps.
It would be difficult to write about the wide receivers without using the word "choke." Tyreek Hill was targeted 15 times but caught just seven passes for 69 yards, good for a 74.3 PFF grade in his 59 snaps. Jaylen Waddle had the toughest time, reeling in just three of seven targets for 44 yards and repeatedly failing to win the ball in the air and haul in catchable passes. To his credit, he played through a midgame shoulder injury to make a crucial fourth-quarter catch among his 60 snaps. Both Waddle (eight-yard run) and Hill (two rushes, five yards) got manufactured touches on the ground. Trent Sherfield (49.7 PFF grade) did not catch either of his two targets in 48 snaps and River Cracraft (53.6 PFF grade) also went without a reception in his 11 targets. Cedrick Wilson pulled in one of his four targets in 15 snaps, a vital 14-yarder. In the season's biggest moment, the receivers were a net negative on a day when Miami needed them to take on more responsibility, not less.
At tight end, Mike Gesicki hauled in two of six targets in 28 snaps, good for 15 yards and a touchdown in what is sure to be his final game in a Dolphins uniform. Durham Smythe had a 20-yard grab on his lone target and graded out at 76.4 by PFF in his 41 snaps. Hunter Long was targeted once without a catch in his 11 snaps. Needless to say, this position unit will look much different next season.
Someone named Lester Cotton started this game, and if that doesn't give you a strong sense of what kind of shambles the offensive line was in, I don't know what will. Left tackle Terron Armstead managed 66 snaps despite pectoral, knee, toe, and hip injuries, earning a 68.4 PFF grade, including an 82.4 mark in pass blocking. Cotton lined up at left guard, grading out at 62.3 in pass blocking and 60.1 in run blocking. In the middle, Connor Williams struggled in pass protection and earned a 67.5 PFF grade overall, while right guard Robert Jones was a mess, tagged with a 44.7 grade by PFF. Forced to suit up at right tackle instead of his customary guard spot, Robert Hunt was respectable in pass blocking (70.7 PFF grade), but fell to a 46.4 mark in blocking for the run. Jones (two), Armstead, and Hunt all had false starts, and the unit surrendered four sacks in a predictably subpar performance. Despite years and years of investment in the offensive line, the 'Fins feel only marginally closer to building an NFL-worthy unit.

Defense

Buffalo raced up and down the field to the tune of 423 total yards and 25 first downs, as Miami countered with an over-emphasis on zero blitz. In an all-or-nothing style that some attributed to defensive coordinator Josh Boyer anticipating being fired after the game, the Dolphins did force three turnovers and sacked Josh Allen seven times despite incessant uncalled holding. However, the Bills converted 9 of 16 third downs and turned four red-zone trips into three touchdowns.
At defensive end, Zach Sieler carried the day, earning a 66.3 pass-rushing grade on the strength of six tackles, two sacks, a stop for a loss, four quarterback hits, one fumble recovery, and a defensive touchdown in 70 snaps. Christian Wilkins contributed four tackles, a sack, and two quarterback hits, though he was whistled for a laughable unnecessary roughness penalty after being attacked by half of Beefalo's offensive line after a play. In his 70 snaps, Wilkins received a somewhat surprising 47.1 overall grade from PFF.
At the nose, Raekwon Davis had an assisted tackle in 28 snaps, earning a 51.4 pass-rushing grade in a forgettable performance. John Jenkins had a solo stop in his 12 snaps. Miami's next defensive coordinator (hopefully Vic Fangio) will have some decisions to make at this spot, among many.
Bradley Chubb was limited to 28 snaps on the weak side, coming up with a solo tackle, a sack, and a forced fumble to go with a 57.4 pass-rushing grade from PFF. Melvin Ingram played 27 snaps on the strength of two tackles. His 69.1 PFF grade must be graded on a curve based on how many times he was held without a penalty flag. In his 24 snaps, Andrew Van Ginkel had an assisted tackle.
On the strong side, Jaelen Phillips received a 78.8 PFF grade based on nine tackles, half a sack, two stops for losses, three quarterback hits, and a staggering seven pressures in 63 hard-charging snaps.
At middle linebacker, Jerome Baker led the way with seven tackles, a sack, a stop for loss, and a quarterback hit in 71 snaps. He was called for both holding and offsides in the first quarter, and he was victimized in pass coverage (46.6 PFF grade) and missed tackles (41.8 overall PFF grade). Elandon Roberts had three tackles and two quarterback hits in 45 snaps and Duke Riley added two solo stops in 16 snaps, but both had low PFF grades as well (42.0 for Roberts, 39.9 for Riley). The 'Fins were victimized at this position by the Bills, leading to hopes that rookie Channing Tyndall -- an afterthought all season -- can manage a larger role in 2023.
As is their custom, Xavien Howard and Kader Kohou played every snap (74), with Howard notching three solo tackles, two pass breakups, and a holding call, on top of making an "X" play when he picked off a pass and returned it 49 yards at a pivotal moment. Kohou posted two solo stops and two pass breakups, but PFF grades (64.4 for Howard, 52.6 for Kohou) were not kind to either corner, though each was put on an island far too often due to blitz schemes. Keion Crossen recorded three solo stops in his 53 snaps, but his 49.5 PFF grade was underscored by the fact that he had postseason surgery soon after the game. The departure of Boyer for Fangio (again, hopefully) has to be music to the ears of Howard, who questioned the scheme after the contest and played injured most of the campaign.
At strong safety, Eric Rowe played 70 snaps, contributing seven tackles, a sack, a stop for loss, and a forced fumble that was returned for a score. Despite his one-play heroics, Pro Football Focus graded his overall performance harshly, assigning him a 32.4 in coverage and a 46.7 mark overall. Verone McKinley saw a single snap in reserve.
Jevon Holland played all 74 snaps at free safety, registering 10 tackles, two pass breakups, and an interception that he returned 29 yards. He was accorded a 71.8 overall grade by PFF, including a 67.7 mark in coverage. Elijah Campbell saw 14 snaps, recording two tackles, half a sack, and a quarterback hit on his way to a 66.3 overall grade from PFF.

Special teams

Ending his rocky season on a high note, Jason Sanders drilled all three field goals and both extra points.
Thomas Morstead did not have his best performance, averaging 43.7 yards on six punts, with just one downed inside the 20-yard line. He was credited with a solo tackle, however.
Wilson made his first big play on special teams at the right time, racing 50 yards on a punt return at a crucial time in the contest. River Cracraft returned his first kickoff of the year, a 23-yarder. Miami mostly kept returner extraordinaire Nyheim Hines in check, allowing a 30-yard kickoff return and an 11-yard punt return.
Clayton Fejedelem and Justin Bethel led defensive players with 31 special-teams snaps, while Durham Smythe paced offensive players with 18 snaps in the kicking game. Fejedelem had a pair of tackles and Sam Eguavoen added one in the third phase.

Momentum plays

Buffalo started the contest by drawing a hold on Howard and completing passes for 17 and 14 yards before the defense rose up to force an incompletion on a failed 4th & 3 pick play by the Bills.
Two plays later, Thompson lofted a beautiful deep ball to Waddle, who promptly dropped the potentially huge gainer. On 3rd & 9, the quarterback fired incomplete on the run after ignoring an open field in front of him that would have been an easy first down.
After an intensely mediocre punt by Morstead, Allen hit Stephone Diggs for 20 yards. On 3rd & 15, Boyer inexplicably called a zero blitz, leaving a hobbled Howard one-on-one with Diggs, who hauled in the 52-yarder. Allen hit Dawson Knox for a touchdown on the next play, with the tight end pushing off with one hand and grabbing the score with the other.
On the second play after assuming possession, Miami turned the ball over when Thompson did not read a dropping safety. Despite a good hit by Ingold on the interception return, the Bills were set up on Miami's 23-yard line.
After converting a 3rd & 1, Beefalo cashed in the pick when James Cook beat Roberts to the edge on a 12-yard run that saw Crossen unable to get off a block downfield.
Trailing by two touchdowns, the 'Fins got a key third-down conversion when Thompson found Gesicki late for eight yards. Two more drops -- by Hill and then Waddle again on another deep ball -- forced yet another Morstead punt.
The Bills got a tremendous catch from Gabriel Davis for 19 yards (it was overturned after originally being ruled incomplete) to start the following drive, then Allen scrambled for eight yards on 3rd & 7 when Campbell could not catch him. Yet another break fell in Buffalo's lap when an overthrown ball ended up being caught by Diggs for 14 yards on a 3rd & 2 play, but the Dolphins finally caught their own when Knox dropped a touchdown and most of Miami's defensive line sacked Allen on third down. A 33-yard field goal pushed the home team ahead 17-0 a couple of minutes into the second quarter.
A shanked kickoff gave the 'Fins the ball at their own 40, and Thompson found Smythe for 20 yards after holding the ball for a long time. Hill picked up another first down on an end-around, then reeled in a 20-yard pass on 3rd & 19 to continue the drive. A sack and one more drop set up a 40-yard field goal by Sanders, who barely snuck it in to get Miami on the board, 17-3.
After an initial first down, Ingram was held without a call, but provided enough pressure to bother Allen on another deep ball. Howard picked it off over his shoulder, then returned it for 49 yards. Wilkins was attacked by the entire Bills offensive line after the play, but somehow offsetting penalties were called.
Four plays later, the 'Fins went for it on 4th & 8, and Wilson took a short pass and broke tackles to earn a hard-fought first. Back-to-back penalties for a late hit on Thompson and an egregious helmet-to-helmet, personal-foul hit on Ahmed were randomly ignored by an officiating crew that one could only assume had money on the Bills at this point. Sanders drilled the field goal to slice the lead to 17-6, but the discrepancy in flags appeared to be flustering the Dolphins.
Back-to-back pressures from Chubb helped force a dropped pass down the field for a three-and-out. Cedrick Wilson ripped off a massive return, busting into the clear before inexplicably cutting back inside (he would likely have scored easily if he stayed outside), where he was dragged down at Buffalo's 28-yard line for a 50-yard gain.
A drop, a false start, and an awful spot on a third-down catch by Hill that went unreviewed by the officials set up yet another Sanders field goal to make it 17-9.
On the third play of the Bills' ensuing possession, Kohou got a hand on a downfield pass, and Holland snared the deflection and raced 29 yards with it.
Taking over in Buffalo territory for the third straight possession, the Dolphins struck quickly, converting a 3rd & 1 with a short Hill pass before Thompson threw a dart to Gesicki for the touchdown. Another dart to Hill on the two-point try miraculously knotted the score at 17 with 33 seconds remaining.
A miscommunication between Crossen and Rowe allowed a 33-yard gain to Davis on the first play of Buffalo's drive, then Allen found Davis for 17 more on a pivotal 3rd & 6 play. Diggs somehow pulled in a one-hander, but he was unable to get his foot down in the end zone, forcing the Bills to convert a 39-yard field goal to put them back ahead, 20-17.
Miami oddly tried a deep ball to Hill with four seconds remaining in the half and were fortunate that it landed incomplete to end a whirlwind half.
Buoyed by a stellar comeback despite a litany of dropped passes from their best players and one-sided officiating, the 'Fins got the ball to start the second half -- and promptly went three-and-out in the wake of a hold on Wilson going uncalled.
On Buffalo's first play, Rowe sacked Allen, knocking the ball loose. Sieler scooped it up and rumbled in from five yards out to push Miami ahead, 24-20, stunning the home crowd and the announcing crew that was already phoning the game in for the Bills.
After a couple of first downs, Buffalo was forced to punt, in large part because of a big hit by Holland on Knox to jar a second-down pass loose.
The Dolphins went for the jugular on its opening play, with Waddle once more failing to bring down a deep catch by being weak in the air. On 3rd & 6, Thompson placed a beautiful ball to Gesicki down the seam, but the ball was barely tipped and the tight end was unable to bring it in. Miami was forced to punt on a three-and-out that had so much potential on the two strong throws by Thompson that marked this as a what-might-have-been possession.
Phillips threw Cook for a five-yard loss on the Bills' first play, then Chubb was held without a call on a second-down play. On 3rd & 13, Phillips applied more pressure, and "X" went up high to knock down a deep pass intended for Diggs. Buffalo got a 53-yard punt that angled out at Miami's 15-yard line.
Following a pair of negative-yardage plays on an Ahmed run and a sack, Thompson was set up to fail on a 3rd & 19 deep pass to Sherfield. Instead of dumping it down and playing for field position, the quarterback channeled the previously mentioned YOLO sentiment, and the pass was easily intercepted to give Buffalo the ball at Miami's 33-yard line.
The Bills got an initial first down before getting the benefit of another ignored hold on Ingram. On 3rd & 8, a predictable designed quarterback run succeeded when Phillips and Campbell missed tackles. On the next play, Buffalo scored easily on a screen play to move ahead, 27-24.
A 13-yard catch and run by Hill got the 'Fins going, but on 3rd & 10, Gesicki was clearly held without a flag, forcing another Morstead punt. Nyheim Hines fumbled the kick, but Buffalo somehow came up with the loose ball -- a theme for the day.
The Bills picked up a first down on the first play of the next possession, then converted a 3rd & 6 when Kohou was beaten and then carried for about 20 yards. On the next snap, Ingram was once more held without a flag, allowing Davis to pull in a 23-yard catch over Rowe for a touchdown to put Buffalo ahead, 34-24.
A second-down strike to Hill for 12 yards came at a big moment for the Dolphins, but the officials missed yet another call on the next play when Thompson was hit out of bounds without a whistle. A late, late flag for interference finally came in on on the next play, then Cedrick Wilson fought for 14 yards and a first down on the first play of the fourth quarter. A 13-yard catch and run by Ahmed was followed by an unflagged hit to the head on a sack, but Ahmed came to the rescue again, taking a short pass and breaking tackles to dash for 20 yards on 2nd & 18. An end-around to Waddle got eight yards for a first down thanks to a great block by Smythe, but there was no review despite it appearing that Waddle may have scored. Jeff Wilson took an RPO handoff and followed a nice block by Williams for a touchdown that cut the margin to 34-31 with just under 11 minutes remaining.
The 'Fins got a three-and-out when Kohou made a beautiful play to break up a pass, Phillips was held without a call to force an incompletion, and Sieler and Ingram teamed up on a third-down sack.
Miami kicked away a wonderful opportunity with an uninspired drive that saw Thompson panic and fire incomplete despite having all day to throw on a second-down play, then throw underneath to Waddle for five yards on 3rd & 10. A strong 52-yard punt by Morstead helped pin the Bills at their own 10-yard line.
Three plays into Buffalo's possession, an unreal 31-yard catch by someone named Khalil Shakir converted a 3rd & 1. A combined sack by Campbell and Phillips nearly jarred the ball loose from Allen, then Chubb came through with a strip sack on the following play. In one of the biggest plays of the game, the 'Fins were unable to come up with another loose ball on Chubb's signature play as a Dolphin, though the Bills did have to punt.
The 'Fins responded with three misfires to Hill -- including another drop -- though the third pass was caught by a sliding Waddle after it sailed over Hill's head on a clutch 3rd & 10 conversion. A slew of clock-management issues ensued, culminating in a 4th & 1 turning into a 4th & 6 due to a delay-of-game penalty on a play that never happened yet still featured an uncalled late hit on Ahmed. Thompson fired for Gesicki on the fourth-down play, but despite a lot of contact, the tight end was unable to come up with the ball.
Taking over with just over two minutes remaining, the Bills ran a ridiculous rugby scrum on 3rd & 7, with the officials unwilling to whistle the play dead until they awarded Buffalo a first down. The final kneeldown triggered some pushing and shoving from a frustrated Dolphins team that was undermanned and battled its division opponent to a near-draw on the road despite biased officiating.