ACC Tournament 2011, Part III: No Postponing The Inevitable?

In part I and part II, we broke down opening day and the quarterfinals round. Now, we move on to crunch time …


SEMIFINALS, MARCH 12

Game 9, 1 p.m.: #1 UNC vs. #5 Boston College
They say you make your own breaks, and that’s exactly what the Tar Heels did when they knocked off Duke to earn the top seed in the tourney. That allowed UNC to avoid a potential game with Florida State in the semifinals, which wouldn’t have been a good matchup for the Heels.
Instead, UNC gets a BC team that could be in a little bit over their heads at this level of the tournament. Nothing against the Eagles (translation: this is your warning that I’m about to say something against the Eagles), but the fact that BC is the five-seed in the tourney this year says a lot about just how weak the ACC is this year.

Reggie Jackson will always give Boston College a shot, but UNC simply has way too much for the Eagles to handle at this point of the campaign. Thanks to an easy bracket, the Tar Heels will coast to the championship game without much of a challenge.



Game 10, 3 p.m.: #2 Duke vs. #3 Florida State
Normally this would be a highly intriguing matchup between two defensive-minded clubs, but the Blue Devils have slipped on “D” somewhat toward the end of the year. The difference as I see it is that both teams can defend extremely well, but the Seminoles struggle much more to score.
How much of a lift the ‘Noles get from a possible return by Chris Singleton remains to be seen, but overall Florida State lacks the aggressive, penetrating offensive pieces needed to make the Blue Devils pay for hand-checking overextending on defense.

Without that go-to guy to offset Duke’s Nolan Smith, FSU will be challenged to keep pace with a Devils team that many are predicting to get bounced from the tourney early this year. In arguably the best contest of the ACC Tournament thus far, I see Duke sliding past the Seminoles late to reach yet another tourney final.



FINALS, MARCH 13

Game 11, 1 p.m.: #1 UNC vs. #2 Duke
You have no idea how much it pains me to go chalk and write these two teams in this spot. But the reality is I just don’t see where either slips up on the path to Sunday. If the Heels had lost any of the five games they won by three points or less, they would have potentially drawn Florida State in the semifinals round, in which case I would have pulled the trigger on the ‘Noles in an upset. Yet credit goes to the Tar Heels and Harrison Barnes for the late-game heroics that lifted them to the top seed. You can also credit this year’s close-to-embarrassing league for the easy brackets.

All that being said, everyone around the nation, the area and Wal-Mart clamoring for this matchup for the third time this year will get their wish. The Heels have come out on fire in each of the two previous matchups, but I don’t see them pulling off that trick for a third time against a Coach K team. Look for the Plumlees to avoid the bail-out calls this time around and for Kyle Singler to actually sheepishly decide to pitch in and help out Nolan Smith and Seth Curry.
You have to figure there’s no way Ryan Kelly will miss every open shot he gets in this one, and with some more tape on UNC’s Kendall Marshall, Duke should be able to figure out something to stop the rookie in transition.

The bottom line is the Heels will be hard-pressed to duplicate their shooting performance from the last matchup, and this is where the perimeter struggles will finally catch up to Roy’s boys. I see the Blue Devils cutting down the nets in Greensboro yet again, locking up a top seed and nauseating roughly 87% of the state.

Anyway, that’s how I see it. Hopefully some self-respecting conference team will prove me wrong somewhere along the way.

Enjoy the hoops …