On Tuesday of this week, I started putting together some notes for a post about the Miami Dolphins’ draft plans (April 22 -- coming up quick!). While speculation has abounded about who the ‘Fins will take, ranging from Alabama linebacker Rolando McClain to Tennessee nose tackle Dan Williams to Texas defensive end Sergio Kindle to Clemson tailback C.J. Spiller to Texas safety Earl Thomas, much of the hubbub of late centered on Oklahoma State wideout Dez Bryant. So my plan was to put together a post detailing the wisdom of taking Bryant with the No. 12 overall pick vs. trading for Denver Broncos malcontent receiver Brandon Marshall.
My argument was going to focus on the devil you know (can dominate) in Marshall vs. the devil you don’t (know can produce) in Bryant. In my line of thinking, if you think you want to take Bryant that high, then shouldn’t you try to deal with a proven 26-year-old in Marshall? I won’t say that they have some similar off-the-field concerns, because Bryant has never been arrested (despite a frighteningly difficult past) and Marshall has had domestic abuse, assault, disorderly conduct and drunk driving incidents. However, immaturity is a huge question mark for both, and in that scenario, if you do your due diligence, wouldn’t you go for the guy who already has three straight 100-catch seasons vs. the guy who has the problems AND question marks around his ability to produce on the NFL level?
Say Miami passes on Marshall and takes Bryant 12th overall in the draft. What do they have? A possible No. 1 receiver with enough baggage and concerns that he’ll immediately be in the crosshairs as a rookie with access to South Beach. But say they trade for Marshall -- what do they have then? One of the top three wide receivers in the NFL with a lot of baggage and concerns -- PLUS the No. 12 overall pick to grab someone like Williams, Thomas or Kindle (please, no Spiller, but that’s a story for another day) or even trade down to recoup that second-rounder and make a better value pick later in the first round.
And certainly, it’s not as cut and dried as that, but apparently the logic entered the equation at some point for Miami, because the day after I started work on the blog post about this very subject, the ‘Fins held their collective nose and pulled the trigger on a deal for Marshall on Wednesday, sending a pair of second-rounders to Denver for the right to make Marshall potentially the highest-paid wideout in the NFL and the right to pray like the bejeezus that no one ever tells Marshall where South Beach is. And hopefully the second second-rounder (in the 2011 draft) is conditional … in the sense that if Marshall is cuffed and stuffed by the time the 2011 Draft rolls around, it drops down to a sixth-rounder.
It’s an interesting move on a number of fronts for Miami. Marshall is a complex guy, charming one second and coming off as a colossal douchebag the next (check his “Outside the Lines” dossier). I’m sure the truth is somewhere in the middle, but he falls in line with my unresearched theory about how so many of these guys are really using misguided ways to find the father figure they have never had in their lives. If coach Tony Sparano, vice president Bill Parcells and general manager Jeff Ireland can get Marshall motivated (despite a big contract) and focused, there are many who believe Marshall could be the most dangerous offensive threat in the NFL. However, this also could be the ultimate risk-and-reward operation, with Marshall just as likely to take the big bucks, get in more trouble and see himself suspended for an entire season or more. Ultimately, this is the decision that the Miami braintrust -- whose reputation has far outweighed its success thus far -- will be measured on for its entire tenure.
The Dolphins believe they can control him. The Dolphins believe he’s not the guy who acted like a pouty 9-year-old in Denver practices. The Dolphins believe that now that he’s married, he’ll find some stability in his life.
And the Dolphins have 24,000,002 reasons (a rumored $24 million guaranteed plus two second-rounders) to really, really want to convince themselves to believe these things.
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