Tuesday, July 11, 2023

Day 1,214, Quasi-Quarantine: The Sorry State Of The Mets Outfield At The All-Star Break


One of the more disappointing positions on a team full of first-half disappointments has been the Mets' outfield. The harsh reality is, outside of center fielder Brandon Nimmo, this position group is manned by older players who should be fourth outfielders at this stage of their careers.

Every regular outfielder is at least 30 years old, with Tommy Pham at 35, Sterling Marte and Mark Canha both 34, and Nimmo at 30 years old. While some degradation is expected as players age, the Mets did not account for some of the precipitious dropoffs, and while one could definitely argue that they should have, the team does not have good alternate options at the ready.

We'll start with Nimmo, who is in the first year of a massive $162 million deal. After a strong start, he limped into the All-Star break hitting .266. He's first on the team in walks (46), second in runs (52), third in RBIs (41), and fourth in home runs (13), but the price he's paying for added power is a team-leading 92 strikeouts -- after striking out just 116 times all of last year.

Despite a lot of talk about Nimmo's speed and added base-stealing ability, he has exactly three steals this year. He's also been a little more uneven in the field, but the biggest concern remains at the plate, where his aggression this year is leading to some wasted at bats and Ks.

In right field, the nice way to put it is that Sterling Marte has been a problem. He's hitting .256 but the numbers feel kind to him here. Marte's got just 13 extra-base hits in 301 at bats, scoring a respectable 37 runs, but knocking in just 28. He has 23 steals in 27 attempts, but his .309 OBP, .645 OPS, and eight double plays make him nearly unplayable in the second spot in the lineup. He still plays a respectable right field, but is probably best suited as a spot starter at this stage of his career.

Over in left, Mark Canha is hitting just .245 with 14 doubles, a triple, and six homers, scoring 27 runs and driving in 28. He's walked 28 times to 44 strikeouts, but isn't getting hit by pitches, which has kept his OBP at .345. Last year, Canha was drilled 28 times, but has been hit by pitch on just seven occasions thus far in 2023. He does have six steals without being caught this year.

After grounding into just three double plays last year, he's been doubled up eight times already this year. Canha remains an important defensive presence; his only error has come at third base, and his versatility is big for the Mets, as he has played first, third, both corner outfield spots, and DH at times.

While Canha has been the primary left fielder, he has yielded time to Pham, who has been just short of a revelation. Pacing the team with a .277 average, Pham has contributed 14 doubles and nine homers to boot. He's scored 25 runs and driven in 34 while adding 10 steals in 11 attempts, giving the Mets a rare consistent force in the lineup. Defensively, he has committed three errors, making him an iffy proposition at times in the field.

Pham's patient approach at the plate screams "professional hitter," and it's a bit frightening to think where the team might be without him. Whether he can keep it up for an entire season is the biggest remaining question.

In reserve, Jeff McNeill has become a liability in the outfield and should see time almost exclusively at second base in the second half. While there is some hope internally that prospects Mark Vientos or Ronny Mauricio -- both infielders to this point -- can be stretched into occasional outfielders, the truth is that no answers are available on the current roster.

Getting 33 total home runs from the outfield so far is not a disaster, but the plummeting averages and struggles to get on base do not bode well for a second-half turnaround. Nimmo + three fourth outfielders is not a recipe for success, so it'll be interesting to see what the Mets are willing or capable of doing at the trade deadline to fortify the position.

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