You’ll hear a lot of crazy stats, tidbits and trivia between now and the kickoff of Super Bowl XLI – like the fact that the Colts and my little bro's Bears scored exactly the same amount of points (427) this year, a 30-second commercial spot costs $2.7 million, how this Super Bowl has spawned the ugliest jersey ever and how Gilbert Gottfried has killed media day. What you won’t hear is a position-by-position, unit-by-unit, well-reasoned analysis of what is likely to happen on Super Bowl Sunday. The following five storylines will be among the main ones to follow between hyped commercials and the appearance of #$&*!((@ or Prince or whatever his name happens to be at halftime:
1. Dr. Jackass, Mr. Rex:
“Good Rex” vs. “Bad Rex” has been done to death. Outside of all the hyperbole and exaggeration about the play of Bears quarterback Rex Grossman is the fact that he has led his team to 15 wins.
When he’s good, he’s really good; when he’s bad, he’s really bad. We get it. But they say true players are revealed in the playoff fire, and though no one is inclined to actually report it, Grossman has outperformed the Colts’ Peyton Manning (75.4 to 66.8) in terms of passer rating – which is a somewhat arbitrary measure and one that I hate. Grossman made a clutch throw in a pressure-packed situation on third down in overtime against the Seahawks to set up the game-winning field goal, and while it’s impossible to measure what that can do for a young quarterback’s confidence, it certainly can’t hurt.
Watch Grossman on his first few throws. If he connects on a medium-range bullet early on, you can usually tell that he is going to be on his game. If he throws a flutterball to the other team and starts implementing his 28-yard-drop-and-desperation-heave-off-the-back-foot strategy, the turnovers are going to come in a flurry.
2. News Flash: “Colts Say They Have Discovered Tackling”:
I don’t put too much stock in this “resurgence” of the Indianapolis defense. They were bad all year and a couple of games in the playoffs doesn’t erase that. The Chiefs and the Ravens are both coaching-challenged and are shaky offensively, and the Patriots put up 34 on the Colts. Not exactly the birth of the “Doomsday Defense.”
Teams ran all over Indy during the regular season, and you can bet Bears offensive coordinator Ron Turner will showcase a steady dose of Thomas Jones around the edge and Cedric Benson up the middle. This approach will serve the threefold purpose of keeping Manning & Co. off the field, attacking the Colts’ biggest weakness and taking pressure off of Grossman. Will Chicago stick with it if they face tough sledding early on? Will the Bears have enough success to run some play-action for Grossman to tight end Desmond Clark down the seam or wideout Bernard Berrian over the top? Will Grossman get bored and try to put the offense on his shoulders?
The matchup of the Bears offense and the Colts defense is the question of the game. Is the advantage for Chicago here larger than the disparity between the Indianapolis offense and the Bears defense? If the answer is yes, as I suspect, then the Windy City could be partying like it’s 1985.
3. The Manning Curse:
There is a sentiment among some that the Manning family is a collection of bitches who realized how much everyone hated them and has embarked on a PR blitz the past couple of years in an attempt to change that perception. OK, well that’s my sentiment, anyway. Whether it’s Peyton’s selfish, maniacal pursuit of statistics, Ely’s whiny face that makes him look like someone just stole his Cabbage Patch Kid when he throws an interception or Archie’s disturbing resemblance to Woody Allen, the “first family” of the NFL needs a locker room-sized closet for all its skeletons.
Peyton has a tendency – nay, a need – to try to be a hero, which is just one of the reasons why he has thrown six interceptions in the playoffs thus far. His reputation as a playoff goat precedes him, and you could make a compelling case that the Colts won the first two playoff games despite him. He rallied his team dramatically against New England, but does that magically transform him into a clutch performer and erase the years of bad outings at crunch time? That remains to be seen, especially against a defense that specializes in creating havoc and forcing turnovers.
4. Hester’s Last Stand:
Devin Hester took the NFL by storm this year as a rookie, with six return touchdowns. Devin Hester played at Miami, where the Super Bowl is being held. Devin Hester is from Riviera Beach, Fla. Devin Hester is arguably the most dynamic weapon and threat in the league. Devin Hester hasn’t been heard from in a few games.
Even though the pundits have two full weeks to break down the Super Bowl, the absence of Hester’s name in all the analysis is nothing short of mind-boggling. This guy is the ultimate “X” factor and almost singlehandedly wins the kicking game for the Bears, a team that relies on that aspect of every matchup. Many catches believe that if offense, defense and special teams make up the three phases of the game, winning two of those in any given contest will almost guarantee victory. Having Hester when he's on is like winning this phase prior to the coin toss.
Hester muffed two punts against Seattle, then had a touchdown called back on a penalty vs. New Orleans. Something tells me that on the biggest stage, in his old stomping grounds, he is going to be heard from in a big way.
5. Happy Feet, Literace (Jazz) Hands:
One of the surprising developments of this year is that Manning, who is used to having six seconds to throw in a protective cocoon, has been taking a little punishment. Teams have been able to devise some pass-rushing tactics that have slowed Manning down, forced him into mistakes, caused him to question his teammates and given him happy feet. When Manning is feeling the pressure, he looks like a squirrel tap-dancing on a hot stove (not that I have ever witnessed this in the past few weeks).
Although the Bears will be missing Tommie Harris, an All-Pro and arguably the best defensive tackle in the game, they still boast a potent front four. Ends Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye have both been to the Pro Bowl, Ian Scott is an underrated replacement for Harris who has started a lot of games for Chicago, and Tank Johnson is a strong weapon inside (*fill in your own gun charge-related joke here*). If the Bears can generate pressure with its front four, without having to turn to blitz packages, it will be a long day for Manning & Co. If linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs are free to roam and deck Indy pass-catchers, the entire flow of the game changes. The Colts have not faced a “D” as physical as Chicago’s – who has? – and their receivers are not accustomed to taking a lot of punishment before they step out of bounds or slide to the ground. This reminds me of Super Bowl XXXVI, when the Patriots’ gameplan was to smack the crap out of the Rams wideouts every time they touched the ball. It worked then, and although the rules have changed somewhat to limit defensive contact since then, you know the Bears will be following this route as well.
Two years ago, the Colts went to Soldier Field and embarrassed Chicago, 41-10, in a game that saw Indy continue to throw even when the game had long been decided. Three major things have changed between now and then: Grossman will be playing, not Craig Krenzel; Edgerrin James is no longer around to take pressure off of Manning; and Urlacher did not play in that 2004 meeting. The craziest stat from that matchup was that Manning was not even knocked down in the entire game, much less sacked. I’m guessing Chicago coach Lovie Smith and defensive coordinator Ron Rivera would rather lose 63-0 than go through another game when the opposing signal-caller is never touched, so expect that duo to devise an attack that forces Manning to deal with people in his face. If they can knock him down a few times early on and make him think about his bum thumb, it will go a long way toward propelling the Bears down a victorious road.
Chicago 27, Indianapolis 17. You heard it here first.
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