Though you can expect to see a slew of articles decrying the demise of the league tourney and the gradual decline of the conference as a whole, there’s still a bit of magic left in the event that is the ACC Tournament. In the past few years (2007, 2008 and 2009), we’ve broken down the tournament by seed before rolling out some predictions.
In Part I here, we’ll take a quick snapshot of the top six seeds, and then we’ll tackle the bottom six in Part II later.
Have at it:
#1 UNC (24-6, 14-2 in the ACC)
Count me among those who is super-surprised at how effective the Tar Heels have been during the bulk of the regular season. Say what you will about how down the ACC is (and it is, indeed, way down), UNC has won a bunch of nail-biters and knocked off Duke to take home the regular-season crown. There are still huge questions about the perimeter shooting and whether John “Black Gumby” Henson will continue to get the protection he gets from ACC refs, making the Heels a candidate for an upset at some point. But the team has jelled even after losing the Wear twins, Will Graves, Larry Drew and Reggie Bullock, thanks to the arrival of Kendall Marshall and the maturation of Harrison Barnes (who still takes a lot of ill-advised shots). If UNC continues to shoot the way they did late in the season and can avoid foul trouble on the interior, they’re going to be awfully tough to beat in Greensboro.
#2 Duke (27-4, 13-3)
Simply put, the Devils will go exactly as far as three-point shooting takes them. Nolan Smith, easily the ACC’s best player, has become Duke’s only threat from 20 feet in, and he has turned himself into a tremendous playmaker and finisher. Kyle “Creepy” Singler disappeared in the latter half of the conference slate, while Seth Curry seems to live only to light up UNC. The Plumlee brothers give the Blue Devils a formidable presence on the defensive end, but they can’t score and Ryan Kelly just isn’t ready for prime time. In the backcourt, foul-machine Tyler Thornton and Andre Dawkins aren’t much more than role players. The lack of a pure point guard has hurt Duke badly, which means that Smith could carry this team to the ACC title, but he’s going to need Singler to get off the milk box and into the game.
#3 Florida State (21-9, 11-5)
The Seminoles undeniably have a lot of pieces, but in my estimation they lack the go-to guy needed to win a crunch-time game in a tourney setting. Derwin Kitchen is coming out of his shell somewhat, but is still tentative on the offense end, while backcourt mate Deividas Dulkys has lost his long-range stroke, but still plays strong defense. Ian Miller is giving them instant offense as the third guard, while Xavier Gibson, John Kreft and Chris Weinke’s black twin, Bernard James, give the ‘Noles a formidable front line. Throw in key players like Michael Snaer, Luke Loucks and Okaro White, and it’s easy to see how FSU put together such a strong campaign even after Chris Singleton went down. If the rumors are true and Singleton ends up playing in Greensboro, Florida State can make some noise, but they feel more like a semifinalist with Leonard Hamilton drawing up late-game strategy.
#4 Clemson (20-10, 9-7)
Brad Brownlee has done a tremendous job in his first season with the Tigers, even if some of his late-season comments suggest he’s got an awful lot to learn about how the ACC works. Big man Jerai Grant is one of the league’s most improved players, and he’s getting help up front from versatile Devin Booker, the enigmatic Milton Jennings and the pesky Bryan Narcisse. At guard, Demontez Stitt always seems to play well in the ACC Tournament, while Andre Young has turned himself into a viable perimeter threat and the annoying Tanner Smith gives great minutes as well. The Tigers have been overachievers under Brownlee and a victory in the ACC Tournament would likely cement an NCAA berth, but it’s hard to envision them as a contender for the tourney championship this year.
#5 Boston College (19-11, 9-7)
Behind a tremendous campaign from Reggie Jackson, the Eagles have been perhaps the surprise team of the conference. Jackson is a dynamic, do-it-all performer from his guard spot, and he is aided by frontcourt senior standouts Joe Trapani and B.J. Raji. Josh Southern and Biko Paris are two more seniors who give this veteran squad (an unheard-of 11 upperclassmen, including eight seniors) a lot of complementary pieces. After a midseason lull that saw BC lose four of five, the Eagles finished strong with three straight victories. Can Jackson lift the team through the ACC Tournament? Possibly, but at the very least, this is the kind of squad that no one wants to see on the other side of the bracket in Greensboro, where Al Skinner’s teeth will certainly be missed.
#6 Virginia Tech (19-10, 9-7)
Coach Seth Greenberg could make a lucrative career as an endorser of bath soaps, because this is one bald man who lives life on the bubble. Improbably, VT overcame a slew of early-season injuries to seemingly punch their dance card with a primetime victory over Duke, but then suffered disastrous losses to fellow fringe teams Boston College (at home) and Clemson to end the regular season. Seniors Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen give the Hokies as good an inside-outside duo as you’ll find in the league, and Erick Green and Victor Davila also lend some firepower to a team that can bog down badly in the halfcourt offense. If tattoos were worth points, Virginia Tech would be in great shape, but this hasn’t traditionally been a strong tourney team under Greenberg, and an early loss will likely leave the Hokies yet again on the outside looking in come NCAA Tournament time.
Head on to part II now ...
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