Seeding Breakdown, Part I: The Top Six, Plus Fun With Pictures

Well, it's March, and what does that mean? The "granddaddy of all conference tournaments", the brainchild of the immortal Everett Case, the crown jewel of Tobacco Road … played in Atlanta … in a dome … that's filled to quarter-capacity … and open to the public. Yes, it's the ACC Tournament, where seasons can be defined or tossed away, NCAA bids can be won or lost, seeds can be raised or lowered, coaches can get fired or raises, NBA futures can be created or taken away, Duke cheerleaders can be mistaken for Norwegian wrestlers, UNC fans are separated with crowbars — and the guys in the Foot Locker uniforms have more power than anyone.

Every year (well, at least in 2007 and 2008), I analyze the seeding breakdowns, then I take a crack at completing the tourney bracket. Here's Part I of my breakdown, and you can check out Part II here.

Giddyup.

#1 UNC (27-3 overall, 13-3 in ACC)
The Tar Heels still show relatively little interest in playing defense for most of the game and have a tendency to forget Tyler Hansbrough when they fall in love with the fast break, but the biggest difference this year is a healthy Ty Lawson with a jump shot. He has surpassed Hansbrough as the best player on this team, and he ensures that sensitive types like Wayne Ellington and Danny Green get the ball often enough to keep them involved. Deon Thompson remains an enigma and Tyler Zeller’s impact has been highly overblown, but beyond Bobby Frasor and Ed Davis, does this team play enough defense in Marcus Ginyard’s absence?

The story that hasn’t been written yet is how Hansbrough has turned into the league’s biggest flopper since Shane Battier. Hell, there are times I wonder if his doppelganger Will has been learning flopping techniques over at Duke while “Psycho T” helps Roy Williams “wax his Coke machine” (yes, that might be a euphemism) after practice.

As usual with UNC, their chances from here on out depend largely on how the refs elect to officiate Hansbrough. If he’s continued to allow to take four steps, launch himself into the nearest defender, scream, throw up an awkward one-hander while falling down and then walk directly to the foul line, the Tar Heels can beat anyone. If he’s officiated fairly and the other team has a strong point guard who will attack Lawson, UNC has been shown to be beatable. The bottom line is that Brokeback U. has more talent (by a lot) than anyone in the conference and they’re the odds-on favorite to cut down the nets in Hotlanta. However, Williams’s relative disdain for the conference tournament and the Heels’ unwillingness to play much “D” has to make you a bit leery.


#2 Wake Forest (24-5 overall, 11-5 in the ACC)
Midway through the conference slate, it certainly didn’t look like the Deacs would eventually rise up and steal the No. 2 slot headed into the league tourney. Exposed by NC State’s box-and-one defense, Wake demonstrated that its frantic pace could be controlled by taking away the dominant interior games of James Johnson, Al Farouq-Aminu and (to a much lesser extent) Chas McFarland. The lightning-quick backcourt of Ish Smith and Jeff Teague could penetrate, create (Smith) and finish (Teague), but when forced to shoot from the perimeter, the Demon Deacons could be had.

Toward the end of the season, Wake Forest played better on defense, dominated the boards, took better shots and had a second player burst through to join Teague in providing consistent sterling play: Johnson. The weak link on this team is L.D. Williams, who yells, screams, pounds his chest, and dunks every now and again, but is more likely to throw up an airball and then dribble one off his foot than he is to have a big impact on the game. Teague is a thug-in-the-making in the Chris Paul mold, Smith’s jumpers have broken more backboards than Jerome Lane, and Johnson is one of those 30-year-olds who looks like he should be playing for Memphis instead of Wake.

You wonder sometimes when watching the Deacs play whether they buy into defense enough and whether they are mature enough. But when they are going good, they are deep, fast and intimidating. The ultimate boom-or-bust team, Wake is the one team that could either win the whole ACC Tournament or go out meekly in the opening round against a lesser squad. Either way, the “Swiss” fans will be watching closely in their tie-dyed, wannabe-Cameron-Crazies T-shirts.



#3 Duke (25-6 overall, 11-5 in the ACC)
Similarly to Wake Forest, the Blue Devils looked like an ACC also-ran about halfway through the league year, after losing four of six in conference play. Swingman Gerald Henderson has made the leap from big-time athlete to full-blown star this season, and has paired with versatile Kyle Singler to power Duke all year long. However, the Devils have been exposed as relatively unathletic at most positions and not physical enough on the interior, putting too much pressure on Henderson and Singler to carry the load with Jon Scheyer losing his shot.

Toward the latter part of the regular season, Coach K scratched his shoe-polish encrusted head and realized he needed to shake up his backcourt. He installed little-used rookie Elliott Williams at the two, slid Scheyer over to the point and relegated perpetual dunk victim Greg Paulus even deeper onto the bench. Williams added more athleticism, length and defense, while having the ball more allowed Scheyer to better hunt his shot. Throw in a revitalized Lance Thomas and the omnipresent garbage man David McClure, and all of a sudden the Dookies had a lot more meaningful options.

Duke played well toward the end of the year, although Williams has to be cautioned not to overstep his bounds and shoot too much and Nolan Smith is still concussed after a healthy run-in with Maryland meathead Dave Neal. Singler still settles for the jump shot too much and Henderson can’t go left to save his life, but if Scheyer maintains his composure and keeps hitting his perimeter shots and if Brian Zoubek can simply stay out of his own way, the Blue Devils can be a thorn in the side throughout the ACC tourney. There’s little question that Coach K seems to recruit based on how many funny-looking white kids he can stock on one roster, but Duke is capable of overcoming a gap in athleticism for long enough to sustain a tourney run.


#4 Florida State (23-8 overall, 10-6 in the ACC)
It says here that Toney Douglas should be the ACC Player of the Year and Leonard “I’m the black Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man” Hamilton should be the ACC Coach of the Year. (It also says here that Scarlett Johansson should let me open bottles of Sierra Nevada with her cleavage while Katherine Heigl watches, so take that for what it’s worth.) But at the risk of sounding like there’s a little bit of a bias toward UNC and Duke and against the expansion ACC members … well … there’s a little bit of a bias toward UNC and Duke and against the expansion ACC members.


Regardless, the Seminoles are perhaps the best and most underreported story in the league this year, and the phenomenal Douglas is the reason why. He’s put FSU on his back and helped to put the incessant cheating in the football program in Tallahassee on the backburner, leading the ACC in scoring and finishing in the top 10 in eight other categories. He’s gotten big-time help in the form of Uche Echefu and Solomon Alabi, who are even better on the court than they would be as answers on “Wheel of Fortune.”

The questions are whether Douglas will begin to wear down from carrying such a load (he’s playing more than 37 minutes a game, on top of everything else) and whether he has enough of a supporting cast (no other FSU player averages in double-figures) to lift up the ‘Noles should his play fall off or should he experience foul trouble. The answer is probably no, but Florida State has a formula—elite-caliber lead guard, powerful front line and strong defense—that can make them a tough out in any tourney format.


#5 Clemson (23-7 overall, 9-7 in the ACC)
Seemingly for years, the Tigers have started off 16-0, hit the meat of the conference schedule and ended the season losing like eight out of 10. A similar scenario took place again this year, so what’s different and why should you pay attention? Clemson only had really one head-scratching loss this year (in overtime at Virginia) and despite being swept by Florida State and losing at home to Virginia Tech, appeared to be steadier and more well-rounded than in years past.

Trevor Booker is going to get screwed out of first-team All-ACC honors, and that’s a shame, because the kid is a forking beast. A walking double-double, he’s added a midrange game to his frightening forays to the hoop and nightly attempts to rearrange rims all over the ACC. I swear K.C. Rivers used to feed Tree Rollins in the post, but this ninth-year senior remains his streaky self, continuing to be an underrated rebounder for his size and a guy who can make teams pay from beyond the arc. Point guard Demontez Stitt didn’t quite emerge as a standout this year as many expected, but he is still a more-than-serviceable solution as the primary ballhandler.

Perhaps the biggest difference this year for the Tigers has been the surprising evolution of Terrence Oglesby, who, despite having a rather, shall we say, non-white-sounding name and looking like every kid I ever played high school basketball against, ever, has emerged as more than just a deadly three-point marksman. Add in Raymond Sykes (his whipping dreadlocks get him an extra three rebounds per game simply because no one wants to lose an eye boxing him out) and Jerai Grant down low, and you begin to see why Clemson is potentially so dangerous. Not only can they press you to death, but they finally have more offensive firepower to help them both make up deficits and put teams away. Do they have enough offensive pieces yet, though? If they can’t prove they do with this relatively favorable draw in the tourney, the window may close on coach and Lou Gossett Jr. body double Oliver Purnell.



#6 Boston College (21-10 overall, 9-7 in the ACC)
Perhaps no player in the league scares teams more in the open floor than Tyrese Rice. He’s been the most underpublicized player on the national scene for seemingly years, and even though his minutes and scoring went down a little this year, his assists went way up and he didn’t have to completely dominate the ball as much as usual. Versatile Vermont transfer Joe “Don’t Call Me Satriani” Trapani has enough of an inside-outside game to force foes to respect him, while shooting guard Rakim Sanders has broken through this year as a dangerous sidekick for Rice. If only he had Eric B. to work alongside him …

Josh Southern is a foul machine, but he’s big enough to cause problems inside, while Corey Raji does a little bit of everything for the Eagles. While freshman Reggie Jackson isn’t the straw that stirs the drink (some of you saw what I did there), he’s athletic enough to create problems as a finisher on the break and as a garbage man. No one gets more out of less than coach Al Skinner (and no one gets more teeth into one mouth than him, either), who has quietly put together yet another 20-win campaign.

One of the issues with this team is you never know which one will show up — can you think of any other squad in the land that could beat UNC and then lose to Harvard in back-to-back games? But Skinner has a lot of athletic, physical players, and any team with Tyrese Rice on it is a threat to beat any other squad on any given night in the ACC Tournament. Can Rice catch fire like Randolph Childress did years ago to lift Wake Forest to the tourney title? That’s a lot to ask, but for any single game, this is a team that you don’t want to face in a tourney setting.

Tomorrow ... part deux!