Friday, February 16, 2024

Day 1,431, Quasi-Quarantine: Dolphins-Chiefs Game 18 Review

 

Another year, another road loss in frigid temperatures by an injury-ravaged team on wild-card weekend.

This was the Miami story as the narrative of the team being uncompetitive against quality teams was ultimately proven unequivocally true. A third-straight loss ended the Dolphins season, as the visitors were destroyed by time of possession (34:05-25:55), poor offensive game-planning, and predictably disastrous officiating. With the deck stacked against them from a few different directions (this was the fourth-coldest game in NFL history, with wind-chill temperatures reaching minus-27 degrees), the 'Fins rolled over and played dead.

On to the make-it-stop recap ...


Offense
  • With everything happening within five yards of the line of scrimmage (the "Adam Gase Offense," as I've come to call it), Miami never stretched the field and earned just 13 first downs, including failing to convert 11 of 12 third downs. Though the 'Fins managed to convert three of six fourth-down tries, they averaged only 4.5 yards per play and managed 264 yards. As was too often the case this season, the Dolphins forgot about the running game, carrying  just 18 times despite a 4.5-yards-per-carry average. Miami never entered the red zone, and McDaniel refused to or was simply unable to adjust to the Kansas City defensive approach.
  • Tua Tagovailoa completed barely half (20 of 39) of his throws for 199 yards and a score, but he was picked once and sacked twice on his way to a 15.8 QBR. He ran three times for 25 yards, but was also called for a delay of game. McDaniel's plan did the quarterback no favors, but Tua also was panicky and too quick to check down for minimal gains.
  • In the backfield, Raheem Mostert got just 27 snaps, rushing eight times for 33 yards and catching one of two targets -- for a three-yard loss. DeVon Achane carried six times for just nine yards in his 23 snaps, though he reeled in three of six targets for 21 yards. Jeff Wilson was targeted twice and managed a six-yard catch in his 13 snaps, but did not get a carry. Oddly, in a game where the ground attack would be vital based on weather, fullback Alec Ingold got just a dozen snaps, failing to record a touch.
  • The receiver snaps were split pretty evenly among the top three of Tyreek Hill (40 snaps), Jaylen Waddle (41), and Cedrick Wilson (38). Hill caught five of eight targets for 62 yards, but most of that came on a 53-yard touchdown and he was too often dominated physically at the line of scrimmage. Waddle was targeted five times, catching two for 31 yards and adding a nine-yard run. Wilson pulled in three of seven targets for 37 yards, while River Cracraft made the most of his 23 snaps, catching two of three targets for 33 yards. In 13 snaps, Braxton Berrios was targeted once without a catch, while Chase Claypool did not get a pass thrown his way in four snaps. The lack of production from the wideout corps was made even worse when both Wilson (illegal formation) and Hill (false start) were called for presnap penalties.
  • At tight end, Durham Smythe got three of four targets for just 12 yards in his 54 snaps, while Julian Hill was not targeted in his 17 snaps.
  • Every starter played all 61 snaps along the offensive line. That's the good news. The bad news is they were largely dominated, struggled to pass off blitzes, and committed damaging penalties (right tackle Austin Jackson had a false start and left guard Robert Jones had an illegal use of hands). The front probably deserved more of an opportunity to establish physicality in the ground game, but the reality is that they were a net negative in the Dolphins' offensive efforts in this one.

Defense
  • In what would be his final game as defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio emptied his playbook, trying pretty much everything to disrupt Kansas City -- and it largely worked early on. Recognizing that the "D" had to manufacture pressure somehow in the face of a withering number of injuries, Miami blitzed on more than half of the Chiefs' passing plays and even went zero-blitz a number of times, but the KC offensive line adjusted well. The Chiefs managed 409 total yards and 25 first downs, but the 'Fins limited them to six of 15 on third down and just two of six on red-zone trips. Kansas City converted its lone fourth-down try, but did fumble three times -- though the Dolphins recovered just one. Arguably, this was a winning performance by a severely depleted unit in more-than-difficult conditions.
  • The dynamic duo of Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler played an incredible 73 and 67 snaps, respectively, doing their best to affect Patrick Mahomes. Sieler recorded four assisted tackles, a pass breakup, and a quarterback hit, while Wilkins contributed three assisted tackles and a quarterback hit. Unfortunately, Wilkins's highly questionable unnecessary roughness penalty gave KC a first down on a 3rd & 20 and effectively ended the game.
  • At nose tackle, Raekwon Davis had two tackles in 32 snaps, while Da'Shawn hand notched three tackles and a fumble recovery in 20 snaps.
  • None of the 'Fins' late-season plans included Melvin Ingram playing 55 snaps in a postseason game, but he was one of a group pf free-agent veterans who had to step into the fray. Ingram had a pair of tackles, while brand-new additions Justin Houston (assisted tackle in 22 snaps), Bruce Irvin (no stats in 12 snaps), and Malik Reed (five tackles and a stop for a loss in 31 snaps) did what they could -- especially Reed. Emmanuel Ogbah posted four tackles and a pass breakup in 38 snaps as the lone long-term Dolphin remaining. Miami had to try to catch lightning in a bottle considering the injury situation, and the results were as expected.
  • At inside linebacker, Duke Riley and David Long carried heavy work loads -- 79 and 76 snaps, respectively -- and it showed. Riley registered 10 tackles and a quarterback hit and Long racked up seven tackles, a stop for loss, a quarterback hit, and a holding call, but both missed key tackles and seemed worn down in the weather.
  • Jalen Ramsey (74) and Eli Apple (73) saw the most action at cornerback, with subpar results. Ramsey had five tackles, a stop for a loss, and a pass breakup, while Apple contributed five solo stops and a tackle for loss. Kader Kohou got 48 snaps in the slot, notching seven tackles and six solos, but his slide in play continued, as all three of the top corners struggled to get ballcarriers on the ground. Once again, rookie undrafted free agent Ethan Bonner saw significant action (11 snaps) over veteran Nik Needham (one snap) and second-round-draft-pick Cam Smith (inactive). Bonner responded with two solos, a stop for a loss, and a forced fumble. Whether Bonner is a legitimate find remains to be seen, but without Xavien Howard, Miami needed a lot more from a veteran cornerback rotation.
  • The situation wasn't any better at safety, where both Brandon Jones (78 snaps) and DeShon Elliott (61 snaps) had their struggles. Jones had eight tackles, a quarterback hit, and a questionable roughing-the-passer flag, while Elliott picked up nine tackles but was a half-stepper in this one and seemed overmatched by the weather and the moment. When he mercifully left the game, Elijah Campbell came in for 18 snaps but did not record a statistic. The back end certainly missed Jevon Holland, but it's become clear that the Dolphins will need to find another quality safety this offseason.

Special teams
  • Jason Sanders contributed a single extra point in a quiet one.
  • Jake Bailey struggled massively, averaging 40.8 yards on four punts thanks to some extremely fortuitous bounces. 
  • Berrios returned three kickoffs for an average of 23 yards, with a long of 30, while Ingold had a 19-yard kickoff return on a squib kick.
  • Julian Hill and Ingold led offensive players with 11 snaps each on special teams, while Campbell paced defensive players with 22 snaps -- though Riley inexplicably added 20 snaps in the third phase to his already huge workload. Chris Brooks, Ingold, and Channing Tindall had assisted tackles in the kicking game. 

Momentum plays
  • After a promising start that saw the Miami "D" force two incompletions, Kansas City converted a 3rd & 10 with a pass to Travis Kelce. Tackling immediately emerged as a massive issue for the 'Fins as the next four plays covered 45 yards, with Elliott whiffing on multiple opportunities to make stops. A miscommunication allowed an easy 11-yard touchdown on the following play, which featured Elliott loafing as Rashee Rice coasted into the end zone for the 7-0 advantage.
  • The Dolphins followed with a quick three-and-out, as two Mostert runs covered two yards and poor blocking waylaid a screen pass to Jeff Wilson. A terrible 28-yard punt by Bailey set up the Chiefs with great field position at their own 43-yard line.
  • Miami came up with a much-needed three-and-out of its own when a third-down blitz resulted in a deep ball that Mecole Hardman didn't see, with Apple in coverage. However, a 41-yard punt pinned the 'Fins at their own 11-yard line.
  • The Dolphins delivered a pair of first downs, but despite having a second-and-inches, they had a third-and-short conversion nullified on an illegal formation call on Cedrick Wilson. On 3rd & 5, Tua overthrew Waddle on a ball that appeared to be tipped, and the Chiefs managed to reel in the crucial interception.
  • Starting with tremendous field position again on its own 42-yard line, Kansas City went to work. Poor tackling by Riley, Elliott, and others allowed 34 yards on back-to-back plays by the Chiefs. After a missed hold on second down, KC converted a 3rd & 7 on a short pass that was marked short, but overturned on replay. Miami rose up to get a red-zone stop, however, forcing a 28-yard field goal that Harrison Butker made look easy despite the conditions.
  • Trailing 10-0, the 'Fins were entering the danger zone and turned to Hill to change the momentum after Ingold gave Miami strong field position after a 19-yard kickoff return. Following a nine-yard pass to the wideout, Tua went deep on an RPO that saw Hill fight through interference, come back to the ball, break a tackle, and pick up a block from Julian Hill to get into the end zone from 53 yards away to cut the lead to 10-7.
  • The good feelings were short-lived, however. Mahomes immediately hit Kelce for 22 yards after a coverage breakdown by Brandon Jones and business-decision tackling by Jalen Ramsey and others. On a third-down blitz, Ramsey was beaten for a first down, but a third-down tackle by Apple forced a 4th & 4. With all day to throw, Mahoms eventually decided to run, eluding Ogbah to scamper for 28 yards. A screen-pass touchdown was brought back on a block in the back before Ramsey was beaten again for 10 yards. Sieler kept the 'Fins alive with third-down pressure and a fourth-down tipped pass that forced another short field goal for a 13-7 Chiefs advantage.
  • Four straight Mostert runs covered 21 yards on the ensuing Miami possession, but a drop by the running back on 3rd & 1 was followed by Tua throwing too late for Hill on fourth-and-short.
  • Starting yet another drive at its plus-40-yard line, Kansas City went three-and-out when Jones had strong coverage on a third-down deep ball that fell incomplete to force a punt.
  • With a chance to at least flip field position, the Dolphins responded with a two-yard run, a zero-yard pass, a false start, a dropped snap, and a sack. A lucky bounce on another poor kick resulted in a 51-yard net punt.
  • The field-position dominance continued for the Chiefs, as they started on their own 39-yard line. A strong tackle by Kohou and pressure from Ogbah helped create a 3rd & 11, but Kohou was beaten badly by Rice, who raced 39 yards with Kohou just running next to him for about half of that without trying to tackle him for no apparent reason. Kansas City got more help from the officials when the crew managed to miss a hold, grounding, and illegal touching in the course of just two plays. With the "D" stiffening again, Butker converted once more from 32 yards to push the lead to 16-7.
  • Miami hit a 17-yard pass to Waddle to begin the next drive, but the officiating struggles continued when an illegal use of hands was somehow called on Robert Jones. The 'Fins tried a Hail Mary to Cedrick Wilson with two seconds remaining in the half, but the ball feel harmlessly to the frozen turf to send the teams into the halftime locker room.
  • The sheer offensive ineptitude continued in the second half as the 'Fins received the kickoff and promptly went three-and-out. KC promptly embarked on a 13-play drive that featured at least five missed calls by the officials. Thanks to third-down pressure by Riley, the "D" did rise up to force another short field goal to limit the damage to 19-7.
  • Four handoffs in five plays seemed to finally signal a change in offensive philosophy, but the initial first down (on a fourth-down run) was ruined when Tua was forced to take a sack and then dump it off for a yard on 3rd & 14 to result in yet another punt. The series revealed McDaniel getting completely pantsed by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, as the play concepts did not feature hot reads for Tua.
  • The Chiefs continued toying with a depleted Miami defense on the ensuing possession, going 72 yards in 14 plays and eating up more than seven minutes. Yet another awful call -- this time on Brandon Jones for roughing the passer -- was nearly overcome by a Ramsey interception, but he couldn't hold on. A tough game for Kohou continued when he and Jones were beaten easily on a 2nd & 19 plays for 28 yards. An incompletion on 3rd & 20 would have given the Dolphins the ball back, but an inconceivable cheat job occurred when the refs missed three calls on a single play: an uncalled holding, an uncalled grounding, and an inconceivable late-hit penalty that was whistled on Wilkins. With the game having attained WWE status at this stage, McDaniel would have been fully justified in taking his team off the field. More missed tackles by Long, Campbell, and Apple led to another third-down conversion, and the ensuing Wildcat touchdown felt like a formality afterward, pushing the score to 26-7.
  • The Dolphins pieced together a 10-play drive that was highlighted by a 19-yard catches by Cedrick Wilson (to convert 3rd & 9) and Cracraft. A 14-yard Tua scramble gave Miami a first down at KC's 25-yard line, but contact in the end zone went uncalled, Tua threw incomplete for a near backward-pass fumble, and the quarterback inexplicably threw six yards behind the line of scrimmage to get Hill lit up. On 4th & 16, Tua elected to throw short for nine yards to Wilson, representing yet another pointless and illogical decision.
  • The 'Fins defense overcame another missed holding call to force a three-and-out, and Miami somehow managed to cover just 27 yards in a DOZEN plays. Another Wilson conversion on fourth down established him as the unlikely only offensive player contributing, and a missed offsides on the following 4th & 10 didn't hurt the Dolphins, as Waddle made an appearance with a 14-yard reception. A missed pass interference and back-to-back incompletions set up yet another fourth down, but Hill couldn't hold onto it in-bounds, turning the ball over to the Chiefs yet again.
  • The one-sided officiating continued on the Kansas City drive, but Bonner came up big, delivering a strong hit that forced a fumble that Hand pounced on.
  • A screen to Achane covered 11 yards and a dart to Cracraft covered 14 more, but with time running out, Smythe took a big hit on a useless three-yard gain, a fitting ending to yet another disappointing Dolphins campaign.

2023 Schedule

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