Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Day 458, Quasi-Quarantine: The 'Fins *Gulp* Roll The Dice On Jaylen & Jaelan


After some bouncing around the draft order, Miami settled on the No. 6 and No. 18 overall picks in the first round of April's NFL Draft. The 'Fins initially had the third overall pick, but traded back to No. 12 before (controversially) jumping back up to the sixth spot.

The Dolphins played the long game in last year's draft, with decidedly mixed results. The 'Fins braintrust took a similar approach in 2021, betting on the come with Alabama speedster Jaylen Waddle and Miami end Jaelan Phillips. 

The pluses: In a nutshell, speed and plus athletic ability. In addition, these selections filled massive needs on the depth chart.

The Athletic draft analyst Dane Brugler pegged Waddle as the No. 2 wide receiver and No. 6 overall player in the draft, so this was an appropriate spot for the youngster to go. Waddle has multiple gears, possesses elite return abilities, and is seen as a difference-maker in the open field. He's most often compared to Kansas City weapon Tyreek Hill -- hopefully minus the assaults on women and children.

Phillips was considered the No. 3 edge rusher and No. 22 overall player available by Brugler. At 6-5, 260 pounds, Phillips is a long, angular rush man who shares some traits with former 'Fin great Jason Taylor and long-time Washington end Ryan Kerrigan. The Miami product keeps tackles off balance, is strong enough to play through with swipe moves, plays the run surprisingly well, and tracks the ball nicely. The pedigree is there, with Phillips having been the No. 1 high school recruit in the land in 2017.

The negatives: In a nutshell, both of these dudes have small track records and scary medical histories, bringing significantly more risk than I'd prefer to see in a pair of top-20 selections.

Checking in at 5-9, 180 pounds, Waddle has questionable strength, and his ability to block and break tackles was flagged in the draft process. He's also been dinged for his route-running, though this is hard to measure since he made marked improvement in this area of the game as a junior and the Alabama scheme gets guys open so easily.

What's not hard to measure are the underwhelming stats. Most recently coming off a fractured right ankle, Waddle had less than 2,000 receiving yards in his career and only started nine games in college.

Even more alarming is Phillips's medical file. After two injury-plagued seasons and three documented concussions at the college level, UCLA doctors actually advised him to retire -- which he briefly did, electing to pursue a career in music.

On the field, the defensive end is not considered a sudden athlete, and his predictable rush moves and stiff playing style were documented by analysts. After skipping his bowl game and senior season after transferring to Miami, Phillips ended college with 12.5 career sacks and 16 starts, so there's not a ton there to evaluate.

Most importantly, though, many question how much this young man loves football. In fact, some teams did not have him on their draft board, while the Dolphins went in the other direction -- actually picking him as the first defensive lineman in the entire draft.

The bottom line: It's hard to assess these picks without considering the context of players chosen around them and the history of the draft slot itself. Analysts lauded the 'Fins move to trade back to No. 12, but much of that ammunition was lost when the team immediately moved back to the No. 6 position.

While it must be mentioned that Miami did net draft collateral for future years, there is also a sense that the Dolphins may have outsmarted themselves a bit here. Most fans were praying tight end Kyle Pitts or receiver Ja'Marr Chase fell to No. 6 (they didn't), despite Miami's brass swearing afterward that Waddle was the pick all along.

You also never love to see the team picking right behind you acting like they won the Super Bowl because of someone you passed on (cue the Lions war room reaction to the realization that Penny Sewell got past the 'Fins).

From a risk-averse standpoint due to the value of these picks, I would have preferred staying at No. 12 and/or picking 'Bama wideout Devonta Smith and Michigan end Kwity Paye, two polished players with more proven track records. However, in the Dolphins' defense, Jaylen & Jaelan were not necessarily reach selections, and the franchise felt comfortable betting big on guys they did a ton of homework on.

For now, Miami got better -- as always, ask me again in a couple of years about these players and the Fins' second-day picks and third-day selections to see just how much better and how big a role this duo played in that evolution.

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