#1 Miami
Plain
and simple, the Hurricanes have all the pieces needed to run away with the ACC
Tournament and make big noise beyond: an all-around point guard (Larkin), a
stretch four (Kenny Kadji), a complete off guard (Durand Scott) and a ton of
experienced depth. Jim Larranaga’s “Cocoon”-aged squad has the numbers and
versatility to play a number of different styles, and while the ‘Canes were on
the right side of a lot of good fortune through most of the regular season,
sentiment seems to have gone too far the other way in writing off Miami as a
legitimate contender. If the Hurricanes can keep Nevin Shapiro and Frank Haith
away from G’boro for the entire weekend, they should be the nominal favorites.
#2 Duke
It’s
been popular to turn the Devils into something they’re not, partly due to Ryan
Kelly’s misleading comeback performances and Miami’s late-season erratic play. While
Duke is unquestionably a dangerous team, the reality is that Mason Plumlee
disappears too often, Rashied Suilamon has fallen off of late and Duke is overly
reliant on Seth Curry’s bombing away from three and Quinn Cook consistently playing
over his head. The Blue Devils lack scoring punch off the bench (though the ACC
may have never seen a more prolific fouler than Tyler Thornton), and has often
been the case in recent years, this is a vulnerable team on nights where the
three isn’t falling. Kelly’s return (*fill in your own Geek Squad joke here*)
changes the dynamic of the team, but will it be enough to push a good team to
the next level?
#3 UNC-Chapel Hill
The
Heels parlayed a late-season flurry over a series of subpar teams to zoom up
the standings to grab the third spot. However, an uncompetitive home
shellacking at the hands of Duke was a bit of a reality check to end the regular
season, and any time your go-to player is Reggie Bullock, you know you’ve got a
hit-or-miss team on your hands. Much has been made of P.J. Hairston’s assertion
into the starting lineup, and he’s an undeniable shooter who teams well with
Bullock to give teams fits from beyond the arc. However, Philip Michael Thomas
McAdoo hasn’t lived up to advance billing, Marcus Paige has had understandably
shaky moments as a freshman point guard in the ACC, UNC has one-dimensional
players at the two spot in the bowtie Urkel crew of Dexter Strickland and Leslie
McDonald, and the staff has tried a rotating series of youngsters in the
frontcourt (does Marvin Austin have any eligibility left?), to no avail. Roy
Williams has gone to his pinch-a-loaf stance to urge on his crew quite a bit
this year, but the stark reality is that this is a Tar Heels team with an
uncommon dearth of talent.
#4 Virginia
One
could make a compelling case that the Wahoos are thriving in an underdog role,
though they seem to always fall just short of breaking through. Some seek to minimize
UVa’s style of play, but Tony Bennett’s squad goes out to prove that it is
tougher than you are, and whether you like that approach or not has no bearing
on whether the team is in line for kudos or not. The reality is that the
Cavaliers have outperformed a few squads with much greater talent, and they’ve
done so with a tremendous all-around player in Joe Harris and help from
underrated Akil Mitchell and solid lead guard Jontel Evans. Whether the style
is easy on the eyes or not, one of the best measurements of a good coach is
whether or not he’s capable of forcing you to play his preferred type of game. In
the case of Bennett and the Cavs, the answer is a resounding yes, but the
follow-up question is whether or not that’s enough to make a legitimate run.
Will “The Best Be Yet to Come” for Tony Bennett and the Forearm Shiver
Deliverers?
#5 State
The
Pack is an underachieving unit that too often seems emotionally disengaged and
lacking in competitive fire. State is at its best in transition (translation:
when it doesn’t have to think), but bogs down in the halfcourt due to poor
spacing, the lack of post-up fundamentals and a dearth of legitimate perimeter
shooters. When Richard Howell is cleaning the boards, Lorenzo Brown is playing
under control, C.J. Leslie is mentally present and Scott Wood is drilling open
treys, Mark Gottfried’s club is more than capable of taking down anyone (on a
neutral floor). But the harsh question is this: when has more than two of those
things taken place in the same game for the Wolfpack? State’s only hope is that
it has played poorly enough during the regular season to convince itself it is
now in an underdog role.
#6 Florida State
After
last year’s tremendous campaign, a letdown for Leonard Hamilton’s team was
expected, but the Seminoles have improved as the season has progressed. As
usual, Hamilton has dug up a United Nations of players from all points of the
globe (from Alaska to England to Nigeria to Slovakia). The lynchpin is
buzzer-beater extraordinaire Michael Snaer, but FSU was hoping Okaro White
would take the next step in his development and Ian Miller would progress as an
offensive threat—and neither has happened. Rookie point Devon Bookert has
outplayed some of the league’s alleged top guards late in the year, and the ‘Noles
can go extremely big, with six players 6-8 or taller (including three
seven-footers). It’s probably a year early too expect much from Florida State in
a postseason setting, but rest assured that no opposing coach is going to be
giddy about seeing their name across the bracket in Greensboro.
#7 Maryland
Mark
Turgeon is presiding over another nondescript bunch of ballers in College Park.
Catch them on the wrong night and they can knock off Duke easily; catch them on
a normal night and Elon can run them out of the gym. The Terps were hoping for
more from Pe’shon (pronounced PEE-Shon, according to the helpful school Web
site) Howard and Nick Faust, but Alex Len and James Padgett have also been less
than promised in the frontcourt. Maryland thought it had a coup when it bailed
out (literally) Dez Wells from Xavier, but the pieces just haven’t fit together
for the eminently unlikeable Turgeon. Granted, perhaps the Terrapins have been
caught flash-forwarding to a series of 36-33 slugfests with Wisconsin in the
Big 10, but this lackluster club is dragging itself out of the ACC through the
cellar, not the front door, and doing so with a whimper, not a bang.
#8 Boston College
Steve
Donahue is putting together a gutsy team, and usually that’s code for “shoddy
but they try hard,” but in this case it’s for real. He’s got a versatile big
man in Ryan Anderson, an emerging rookie guard in Olivier Hanlan, a solid
ballhandler in Joe Rahon and a young crew of promising big men. Plus, forward
Eddie Odio is a dead ringer for former “Real Genius” star Gabriel Jarrett. Donahue
essentially had to gut the roster when he arrived at Chestnut Hill, and with
four freshmen and seven sophomores, it could be argued that he’s ahead of
schedule at this point. The Eagles are likely at least a year away, but will be
a tough out for somebody in this tourney.
#9 Georgia Tech
It’s
nice to know that even in the absence of Paul Hewitt, the Yellow Jackets remain
an enigma. Brian Gregory’s team has some nice pieces in skilled big man Daniel
Miller, forward Kammeon Holsey, experienced guard Mfon Udofia and promising
youngster Julian Royal, but Tech has been frustratingly inconsistent. Many feel
Gregory has this program on the right track, but there’s no reason the Jackets
shouldn’t be a consistent top-half-of-the-league threat with a great school in a fertile recruiting area with respectable basketball tradition. On the plus side,
Gregory’s hair isn’t getting any grayer now that Glenn Rice Jr. isn’t around to
rifle up random 35-footers.
#10 Wake Forest
The
good news is that Jeff Bzdelik’s team has marginally upgraded from trainwreck
status. The bad news is that resulted in a 10th-place finish and six
ACC wins. Guard C.J. Harris has had his moments and rookie big man Devin Thomas
has a bright future, but forward Travis McKie has regressed and suspension and
transfers have decimated the Demon Deacons roster. It’s hard to argue that
assistant Rusty LaRue wouldn’t be the best player on this team, and that’s a
problem because he’s almost 40. As mentioned, this team has improved from last
year, but is that improvement happening fast enough for Bzdelik to save his
job? That will be the biggest question around Winston-Salem this offseason.
Well, that and where did all the cigarettes go ...
#11 Clemson
The
honeymoon is officially over for Brad Brownell at Clemson. Devin Booker is a
handful in the low post for the Tigers, but he didn’t have near enough help this
season. Forward Milton Jennings never developed into the player many had him
pegged as, while a nondescript group of guards couldn’t elevate the Clemson
backcourt. K.J. McDaniels shows some promise as a sophomore, but beyond that,
there is an almost shocking lack of talent on this roster. If he’s buying rather
than renting in Clemson, Brownell may be wise to head across campus to see how
Dabo Sweeney is
#12 Virginia Tech
Guard
Erick Green was the ACC’s best player all season long (and it wasn’t very
close) and ended up as the nation’s leading scorer to boot. Unfortunately, his
Herculean efforts weren’t enough to lift the Hokies from the bottom of the league
for coach James Johnson. Gunner Jarell Eddie was too streaky, big man Cadarian
Raines was a foul machine on the interior and no one else stepped up enough to
give Green any type of help at all (not even the awesomely named Joey Racer). In
a win-or-go-home scenario Green will give Virginia Tech a puncher’s chance, but
asking him to put the team on his back for an entire tournament is just too
much to ask. On the positive side, Seth Greenberg won’t have to pace around
shotgunning Pepto Bismol waiting to see the brackets this year.
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